외환거래 뉴스 타임라인

OCBC strategist Christopher Wong highlights that Taiwan’s CBC kept its policy rate at 2% for a tenth straight quarter with a mildly hawkish tone, sharply raising 2026 growth and inflation forecasts while flagging sticky services inflation. However, the bank stresses that near-term USD/TWD direction will be driven more by foreign equity flows, tech sentiment and the broader USD move than policy.Policy support versus equity flows"TWD held broadly steady despite the post-FOMC USD strength, helped by a rebound in domestic equities and a return of foreign equity inflows after five straight sessions of selling.""Taiwan’s CBC kept its policy rate unchanged at 2% for a tenth straight quarter but the hold carried a mildly hawkish undertone. CBC raised its 2026 growth forecast sharply to 11.48%, lifted its inflation forecasts and flagged sticky services inflation, but stopped short of signalling an imminent hike.""That may offer some policy support at the margin, but near-term direction is still likely to be driven more by foreign equity flows and the broader USD move. A pullback in US yields or stabilisation in tech equities would help, while renewed foreign selling could keep USD/TWD supported.""Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but rise in RSI moderated near overbought conditions. Some consolidation or risk of pullback is not ruled out intra-day, especially if broader risk sentiment holds up.""Support at 31.83/86 levels (100 DMA, 50% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high) before 31.71/73 levels (21, 200 DMAs, 61.8% fibo). Resistance at 31.90/ 32 levels (38.2% fibo, 50 DMA)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Henry Hao report that Taiwan’s CBC kept its policy rate at 2.0% for a tenth straight meeting, signalling a patient stance. The bank slightly raised its 2026 inflation and GDP forecasts, sees strong growth from AI-related semiconductor demand, and suggests policy could stay unchanged in December but start hiking in Q1 2027 if price pressures persist.Neutral stance with upside risks"The Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.0% yesterday, in line with market expectations. The CBC, which meets quarterly, has now kept the policy rate unchanged for 10 consecutive meetings.""His comments suggest the CBC sees little urgency to tighten at present, judging the current policy stance sufficiently restrictive to contain inflation. The bias appears firmly towards maintaining a wait-and-see stance for now.""CBC slightly raised its headline inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.0% from 1.9% previously, reflecting expectations that global energy prices remain elevated and services inflation stays sticky. CBC expects inflation to ease in 2027 to 1.8%.""The CBC also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 11.5% from 9.5%. The economy expanded 14.2% in H1, supported by strong AI-related demand for semiconductors and robust investment growth.""Overall, the policy outlook appears closer to neutral than to an explicit tightening bias. Strong growth momentum should allow policymakers to focus on inflation risks if price pressures pick up in the months ahead."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

OCBC strategist Christopher Wong notes that the Korean Won remains under pressure as foreign selling of Korean equities persists and elevated US yields after the FOMC continue to weigh. Large-cap technology stocks are at the centre of outflows, though the broader KOSPI has held up. Wong highlights that easing US yields, a softer Dollar and lower Oil may cap near-term USD/KRW upside, but a sustained KRW recovery likely needs foreign equity selling to slow.Flow pressure weighs as USDKRW tests resistance"KRW weakened further as persistent foreign selling of Korean equities remained the main drag, while still-elevated US yields post-FOMC continued to weigh despite easing overnight.""Foreign investors sold another KRW2.3tn of KOSPI shares on Thursday, taking cumulative selling to around KRW14tn over the past seven sessions. Large-cap technology names remain at the centre of the outflows, even as the broader KOSPI has held up relatively well.""Nevertheless, the external backdrop has turned somewhat less negative overnight, with UST yields and the USD easing from their post-FOMC highs, while lower oil prices should also offer some relief.""This may temper further upside in USD/KRW near term, but a more sustained recovery in KRW probably requires foreign equity selling to slow.""Bullish momentum on daily chart intact, though RSI shows signs of moderation after the recent rise. Support at 1373, 1365 levels (21 DMA). Resistance at 1387 (23.6% fibo retracement of the sharp decline from Jul to Sep), 1410 levels (38.2% fibo, 50 DMA)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Japanese Yen (JPY) is down sharply versus the US Dollar (USD) after a dovishly delivered 25 bps Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike and Governor Ueda’s cautious guidance. Markets are disappointed by the pushback against consecutive hikes, undermining efforts to rebuild confidence in the Yen. For USD/JPY, they flag key moving averages near 158–159 and the psychologically important 160 level, with support around 155.Yen slides as markets fade BoJ"The yen is weak, down 1.2% vs. the USD on the back of a dovishly-delivered hike from the BoJ as market participants digested a 7-2 vote along with a cautious and equivocal message from Gov. Ueda as he discussed the rate outlook.""The Gov. pushed back on expectations for consecutive hikes as he also struck a more patient tone in the overall assessment of the outlook. The dovish hike has disappointed markets seeking to rebuild confidence in the yen following a turbulent 2026.""For USD/JPY, we note the potential importance of the 50 and 200 day MA’s at 159.09 and 158.42, respectively, and highlight the critical psychological importance of the 160 level. Support is now once again expected at 155."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

OCBC’s Christopher Wong highlights that Singapore’s August NODX surged 46.2% year-on-year, far above consensus, with electronics exports jumping on AI-related demand and broad-based strength across markets. OCBC Economists upgraded their 2026 NODX forecast to 20% year-on-year, but Wong notes this solid external backdrop is unlikely to drive spot near term. USD/SGD has eased with lower US yields and a softer Dollar, and future SGD performance will hinge on US yield and Dollar dynamics.USD/SGD guided by yields and Dollar"August NODX jumped 46.2% y/y, well above the 35.3% consensus and up sharply from 24.1% in July. Electronics exports surged 131.8%, led by AI-related demand for ICs, disk media products and PCs, while non-electronics also rose.""The strength was broad-based across most major markets, although a favourable base effect also contributed to the headline jump.""Our Economists upgraded our 2026 NODX forecast from 15.2% to 20% y/y, taking into account that NODX already surged 22.4% y/y in the first 8 months and even after factoring a moderation to 15.6% YoY for the remaining four months of the year.""The data reinforce an already solid external-growth backdrop but are unlikely to be the main driver of spot in the near term. Overnight, USD/SGD eased lower, taking cues from UST yields and USD. If UST yields continue to ease, SGD should be relatively well placed to benefit, while renewed USD strength/ higher UST yield would likely keep USD/SGD supported.""Daily momentum is bullish but RSI eased lower from near overbought conditions. A death cross appears to be in the making (50 DMA cuts 200 DMA to the downside).""We watch further price action for confirmation for any bearish reversal or if bearish signals are being nullified. Area of resistance at 1.2790 (50% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high) - 1.2810 (50, 100, 200 DMAs). Next level at 1.2840 (38.2% fibo). Support at 1.2740 (61.8% fibo), 1.27 (21 DMA)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD clears 0.7100 after reclaiming June resistance.RSI nears bullish territory as buyers regain momentum.Break above 0.7168 exposes 0.7200 and 0.7237 next.The Aussie Dollar is poised to end the week on a positive note versus the US Dollar, up 0.21% as improved risk appetite keeps AUD/USD trading near 0.7124, closing near Friday's highs.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookAfter breaching the June 15 high of 0.7088, which turned support once cleared, the AUD/USD broke above 0.7100 and hit a two-day high of 0.7136 before settling at around 0.7120.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the index is bearish but about to turn bullish. This means buyers expect further upside, as the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates at the September 29 meeting.If the AUD/USD extends its gains above the current week’s high of 0.7168, a move to 0.7200 is on the cards. On further strength, the next stop will be the September 9 daily high of 0.7237, followed by the May 6 cycle high of 0.7277.On the other hand, if AUD/USD falls beneath the 50-day SMA of 0.7084, the next stop will be the 100-day SMA at 0.7078. Beneath is the September 16 swing low of 0.7075, ahead of challenging the 200-day SMA at 0.7012.AUD/USD Price Chart – DailyAUD/USD daily chart Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research highlights that USD/CNH is easing toward 6.70 despite a stronger Dollar, with the Renminbi (RMB) supported by a lower USD/CNY fixing below 6.76. He links this to possible goodwill from China ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and expects RMB to strengthen further into next Thursday’s meeting as markets hope for an extended US–China trade truce.USD/CNH drift and Trump–Xi summit"USD/CNH has been easing gradually towards 6.70 in defiance of a stronger USD.""The stronger RMB is supported by a steady decline in the USD/CNY fixing to below 6.76 yesterday, which is perhaps a goodwill gesture from China ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Washington next week.""The US is also reportedly holding back a planned announcement of new tariffs related to alleged excess manufacturing capacity, at least until next week’s summit.""With the leaders set to discuss wide-ranging issues related to trade, Iran and AI, markets could hope for an extension of the US-China trade truce beyond November.""We expect Renminbi (RMB) to strengthen further into the Trump-Xi summit next Thursday."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)