ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
11:49 British Pound: Trendline break points to deeper losses – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts, led by Kenneth Broux, report that GBP/USD has broken below its ascending trendline from April 2025 and is extending declines toward the March low.
Societe Generale analysts, led by Kenneth Broux, report that GBP/USD has broken below its ascending trendline from April 2025 and is extending declines toward the March low. The bank flags resistance near 1.3300 and support at 1.3065/1.3000, noting that failure to reclaim resistance could see the pair test lower projections around 1.2940.Cable slides after support failure"GBP/USD has broken below the ascending trendline established since April 2025, extending its decline toward the March low (1.3150). If a short-term rebound develops, the May trough near 1.3300 may serve as initial resistance.""Failure to reclaim this hurdle may lead to continuation in the decline. Next support levels are seen at the November 2025 low of 1.3065/1.3000, followed by projections around 1.2940.""GBP/USD: 1.3163 - 1.3230 overnight range. Cable erases 1.32 handle, off 1.6% this week, third worst performer in G10 after NOK and NZD.""March low of 1.3159 must hold to avoid deeper drop. Support 1.3065, resistance 1.3300.""The victory of Andy Burnham in Makerfield lifts 10y yields back above 4.80%. The Sonia curve is pricing one rate increase by year-end."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:47 Global rates: Converging at slightly restrictive levels – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily stresses that unchanged rates in the UK and US contrast with recent hikes by the ECB and Bank of Japan, but argues this is less divergence than it appears.
Rabobank’s Global Daily stresses that unchanged rates in the UK and US contrast with recent hikes by the ECB and Bank of Japan, but argues this is less divergence than it appears. The authors see global monetary policy still converging at a somewhat more restrictive level and expect any additional tightening in the Eurozone to be limited in scope.Convergence at tighter global settings"Unchanged rates in the UK and US this week underscore the differences in global monetary policy dynamics. Recall that the ECB hiked last week, as did the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. However, the ECB’s starting point, a broadly neutral policy rate, was clearly different from the slightly restrictive policy stance in the UK and US.""Also keep in mind that, prior to the conflict in the Middle East, both the Fed and the Bank of England were expected to cut rates this year. So, arguably, this is not as much of a policy divergence as it may seem. Rather, global monetary policy may still be converging, albeit at a slightly more restrictive level. Indeed, we would also argue that the Bank of England’s reluctance to hike from current rates supports our view that any policy tightening in the Eurozone will probably also be limited in scope."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:38 US Dollar Index: Breakout fuelled by hawkish Fed repricing – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that the Dollar is in breakout territory after DXY moved above 101.00, supported by a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that the Dollar is in breakout territory after DXY moved above 101.00, supported by a hawkish shift in Fed expectations. The FOMC’s higher dot plot and firm inflation projections have driven a bear‑flattening in Treasuries and delivered the biggest Dollar gain in three months, with SOFR futures now pricing a 25 bp hike by October.Fed dots drive renewed Dollar strength"Dollar in breakout territory after DXY scales 101.00.""The upward adjustment of the dots – 9/18 members are pencilling in higher rates this year, 6 are forecasting two or more hikes - sparked the violent bear flattening sell off and the biggest gain for the dollar in three months.""The 2SD move lifted 2y UST yields to 4.20%. The 3SD slump deflated EUR/USD below 1.15 for the first time since April.""Lower oil prices failed to shield importers incl the euro and the Yen as rate differentials swung the tide in favour of the dollar.""SOFR futures price in +25bp by the Fed in October."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:33 Oil: Strait of Hormuz risks ease but fees loom – Rabobank
Rabobank highlights that a 60‑day US–Iran memorandum of understanding has reduced immediate risks to the global economy by keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, though ship crossings remain limited.
Rabobank highlights that a 60‑day US–Iran memorandum of understanding has reduced immediate risks to the global economy by keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, though ship crossings remain limited. The bank notes that Iran may introduce maritime fees after the negotiating period, while President Trump opposes any tolls, leaving future Oil transit costs and geopolitical risk unresolved.Hormuz deal cuts near term risk"The US and Iran have signed the memorandum of understanding, and the 60-day deal is now in effect. Both sides are trying to show some good faith. Iran has said that the Strait of Hormuz is open, even though ship crossings have still been limited so far. Meanwhile, the US said it ended its own naval blockade, which is ahead of the 30-day deadline that both sides had agreed on.""When talks do happen, the future status of the Strait of Hormuz may remain another contentious issue. The Guardian reports that Iran is planning to introducemaritime feesfor ships crossing the waterway, to cover the costs of managing the Strait. This fee would go into effect after the 60-day negotiating period. The memorandum of understanding only requires Iran to provide safe and free passage for 60 days, but President Trump has expressed his opposition to any toll for ships using the waterway.""Nonetheless, the memorandum of understanding removes some of the immediate risks for the global economy and markets. Accordingly, the Bank of England held rates unchanged yesterday, which policymakers consider an “active hold.” Prior to the Iran war, the Bank and money markets had been looking for cuts this year, which means that not cutting already amounts to some degree of policy tightening."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:32 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Bears eye YTD low at 0.5680 amid US Dollar’s strength
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is showing the worst performance among major currencies on Friday, extending its decline against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.5724 lows so far, with the year-to-date low of 0.5781 coming closer.
NZD/USD extends losses to 0.5725, approaching the year-to-date low of 0.5680.The US Dollar has been boosted by rising bets on Fed rate hikes later in the year.The New Zealand Dollar remains vulnerable while below 0.5800.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is showing the worst performance among major currencies on Friday, extending its decline against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.5724 lows so far, with the year-to-date low of 0.5781 coming closer. The pair is on track for a 1.65% weekly decline, as Fed hiking bets have offset investors' enthusiasm about the US-Iran trade deal
The US Dollar has been boosted this week by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish-leaning stance and the new Chairman Kevin Warsh’s commitment to bring inflationary pressure to heel. Futures markets are pricing a 77% chance that the Fed will hike rates in October, from less than 40% one week before, and a nearly 90% chance of at least one rate hike before the end of the year. In the geopolitical front, Oil tankers are sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is fuelling a moderate risk appètite on Friday. Investors, however, are pondering the soundness of the peace deal, as Israel’s attacks on Lebanon continue, and US Vice President JD Vance has delayed the talks with Iranian representatives scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.Technical Analysis: Kiwi remains vulnerable while below 0.5800
The technical picture shows the NZD/USD extending a bearish near-term bias with momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart deep into bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 33, just above oversold levels, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines stuck below zero.Bears have found some support at 0.5724, but technical indicators suggest that rallies are likely to find sellers. Further down, the target is the mentioned 2026 low, near 0.5680. Below that level, there is no clear support until the November 2025 low, at the 0.5580 areaOn the topside, recovery attempts might face resistance at the intra-day high of 0.5775. The pair should break Thursday's high in the 0.5800 area and the trendline resistance from late May highs, now around 0.5810, to ease downside pressure and look towards the June 15 high, at 0.5864.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
The US Dollar has been boosted this week by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish-leaning stance and the new Chairman Kevin Warsh’s commitment to bring inflationary pressure to heel. Futures markets are pricing a 77% chance that the Fed will hike rates in October, from less than 40% one week before, and a nearly 90% chance of at least one rate hike before the end of the year. In the geopolitical front, Oil tankers are sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is fuelling a moderate risk appètite on Friday. Investors, however, are pondering the soundness of the peace deal, as Israel’s attacks on Lebanon continue, and US Vice President JD Vance has delayed the talks with Iranian representatives scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.Technical Analysis: Kiwi remains vulnerable while below 0.5800
The technical picture shows the NZD/USD extending a bearish near-term bias with momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart deep into bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 33, just above oversold levels, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines stuck below zero.Bears have found some support at 0.5724, but technical indicators suggest that rallies are likely to find sellers. Further down, the target is the mentioned 2026 low, near 0.5680. Below that level, there is no clear support until the November 2025 low, at the 0.5580 areaOn the topside, recovery attempts might face resistance at the intra-day high of 0.5775. The pair should break Thursday's high in the 0.5800 area and the trendline resistance from late May highs, now around 0.5810, to ease downside pressure and look towards the June 15 high, at 0.5864.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
11:31 Japanese Yen: Uptrend intact as 162 resistance nears – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes that USD/JPY has resumed its advance after holding a multi‑month trendline near 157.40 and breaking out of consolidation. The pair is approaching the 2024 peak around 162, with key support at 159.65/159.10.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes that USD/JPY has resumed its advance after holding a multi‑month trendline near 157.40 and breaking out of consolidation. The pair is approaching the 2024 peak around 162, with key support at 159.65/159.10. Japanese officials continue to warn of decisive FX action even as the Bank of Japan signals further tightening ahead.Yen pressured despite intervention risk"USD/JPY has staged a steady advance after testing a multi-month ascending trendline (now near 157.40). The pair has broken above the upper boundary of its recent consolidation, underscoring prevalence of the upward momentum.""The 2024 peak around 162 represents the first resistance. Defence of the recent pivot low at 159.65/159.10 is crucial for persistence in up move.""The next objectives could be located at projections of 163.70/164.20 and 165.70.""USD/JPY: 160.97 - 161.81 overnight range. Spot narrows gap to Jul-24 high of 161.95.""BoJ Dep Gov Himino flags further tightening ahead in Diet testimony, April minutes hawkish. Katayama repeats warning of decisive FX action."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
11:01 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near 0.7000; acceptance below 61.8% Fibo. awaited
The AUD/USD pair recovers a few pips from over a one-week low, touched earlier this Friday, though it lacks follow-through and currently trades around the 0.7000 psychological mark.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/USD bounces off a one-week low, though the upside potential seems limited.The Iran uncertainty and the hawkish Fed underpin the USD, capping spot prices.The bearish technical setup backs the case for a further near-term depreciation.The AUD/USD pair recovers a few pips from over a one-week low, touched earlier this Friday, though it lacks follow-through and currently trades around the 0.7000 psychological mark.The US Dollar (USD) rallies to a fresh high since May 2025 amid the uncertainty over the next round of US-Iran negotiations. Apart from this, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt lends additional support to the Greenback and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.That said, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) signal that additional rate hikes were possible if inflation persists helps limit the downside for the Australian Dollar (AUD). From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has been showing resilience below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May upswing.However, the recent breakdown below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% retracement level favor bearish traders. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative and flat, reinforcing a weak tone rather than a momentum-driven selloff.Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 37 hints at growing downside pressure rather than outright oversold stress. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside, and any meaningful recovery attempt might still be seen as a selling opportunity.That said, a clear break and acceptance below the 61.8% retracement around 0.7000 is needed to back the case for deeper losses to the 78.6% level near 0.6926, ahead of stronger structural support at the recent swing low around 0.6832. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement at 0.7051.The latter is followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7085 and the 38.2% retracement around 0.7103. Only a sustained recovery through that cluster would ease bearish pressure and open the way toward the 23.6% retracement at 0.7167 and the cycle high near 0.7271.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)AUD/USD daily chart US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.13% 1.63% 0.73% 1.11% 0.48% 1.62% 1.39% EUR -1.13% 0.47% -0.37% -0.02% -0.66% 0.48% 0.25% GBP -1.63% -0.47% -1.02% -0.48% -1.13% 0.01% -0.22% JPY -0.73% 0.37% 1.02% 0.37% -0.26% 0.92% 0.64% CAD -1.11% 0.02% 0.48% -0.37% -0.66% 0.55% 0.27% AUD -0.48% 0.66% 1.13% 0.26% 0.66% 1.15% 0.90% NZD -1.62% -0.48% -0.01% -0.92% -0.55% -1.15% -0.23% CHF -1.39% -0.25% 0.22% -0.64% -0.27% -0.90% 0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
10:59 Greece Current Account (YoY) rose from previous €-2.344B to €-1.389B in April
Greece Current Account (YoY) rose from previous €-2.344B to €-1.389B in April
10:53 Forex Today: US-Iran talks called off, US Dollar extends rally to 13-month high
Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 23:
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Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 23:The US Dollar (USD) benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere early Friday and builds on its weekly gains against its major rivals. In the second half of the day, April Retail Sales from Canada will be the only data featured in the economic calendar. Stock and bond markets in the United States (US) will remain closed in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. Hence, investors will pay close attention to headlines coming out of the Middle East and to comments from central bank officials. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.11% 1.58% 0.73% 1.10% 0.47% 1.57% 1.34% EUR -1.11% 0.43% -0.39% -0.02% -0.66% 0.44% 0.22% GBP -1.58% -0.43% -0.98% -0.45% -1.09% 0.01% -0.22% JPY -0.73% 0.39% 0.98% 0.36% -0.27% 0.87% 0.60% CAD -1.10% 0.02% 0.45% -0.36% -0.66% 0.51% 0.24% AUD -0.47% 0.66% 1.09% 0.27% 0.66% 1.11% 0.89% NZD -1.57% -0.44% -0.01% -0.87% -0.51% -1.11% -0.23% CHF -1.34% -0.22% 0.22% -0.60% -0.24% -0.89% 0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Swiss Foreign Ministry announced earlier in the day that the upcoming US-Iran talks will not take place as planned. There was no official explanation from the US side but Vice President JD Vance's trip was cancelled after Israel launched an attack in southern Lebanon. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that there was no confirmation that Iranian negotiators would travel for talks, explaining that they first wanted to see that the condition about a ceasefire in Lebanon in the interim agreement is implemented.After posting strong gains for the second consecutive day on Thursday, the USD Index extended its rally and touched its highest level since May 2025 above 101.10 early Friday. At the time of press, the index was trading modestly higher on the day at around 100.90.The Bank of England maintained its bank rate at 3.75% following the June meeting, as expected. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike. Still, GBP/USD remained under bearish pressure on Thursday and lost about 0.7%. The pair struggles to stage a rebound early Friday and trades near 1.3200. In the meantime, political developments in the UK put additional weight on Pound Sterling's shoulders. Reporting on the matter, "Labour mayor Andy Burnham cleared a path to ousting Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Friday after winning a parliamentary seat in northern England, a victory that could usher in a new bout of political instability in Britain," Reuters said.EUR/USD trades at its lowest level since mid-March near 1.1450 in the European session on Friday.Escrivá flags energy-driven inflation risks but plays down wage spiral fearsEuropean Central Bank (ECB) policymaker José Luis Escrivá's 6.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score on Thursday stood notably above the 4.8/10 historic average, signaling a more attentive and mildly hawkish stance versus usual. Emphasis on energy costs spreading to services and transport, plus uncertainty around oil production recovery and oil prices, highlighted upside risks to Euro-area inflation and supported expectations that policy cannot turn decisively dovish yet. These remarks, however, failed to help the Euro gather strength.The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran talks weighs on Gold (XAU/USD) on Friday. After losing more than 1% on Thursday, XAU/USD stretches lower in the European morning and trades near $4,150.The Japanese Yen continued to weaken against the USD on Thursday, with USD/JPY climbing to its highest level since July 2024 above 161.80. The pair corrects slightly lower but holds comfortably above 161.00 early Friday as investors remain on edge in anticipation of a possible intervention. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino said on Friday that the Japanese central bank likely to keep hiking rates based on economic, price and financial trends. Himino noted that currency moves may impact inflation expectations, core inflation, so they will keep monitoring developments closely. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
10:41 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds losses near $64.50 as US-Iran peace optimism fades
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses ground for the third successive day, trading around $64.70 per troy ounce during the European hours on Friday. Silver price remains under pressure as persistent concerns over inflation and high interest rates are revived by mounting oil supply anxieties.
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Silver price remains under pressure as persistent concerns over inflation and high interest rates are revived by mounting oil supply anxieties.Market sentiment turned cautious following a CNN report that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his scheduled trip to the Bürgenstock summit, a development that ultimately triggered the collapse of critical US-Iran negotiations.A spokesperson for Vice President Vance downplayed the disruption, emphasizing that the logistics surrounding these complex negotiations "have never been simple or predictable." The official statement added that no alternative departure plans will be set in motion until a concrete update on the diplomatic situation is firmly established.The Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed that the meetings scheduled for Friday have been called off. Meanwhile, Iranian state-aligned media reported that the postponement of their delegation's travel was triggered by ongoing Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon.Additionally, the non-yielding Silver faces challenges as the traders price in the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Silver, reducing their appeal.The newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized during the post-meeting conference that "price stability" remains the Fed's ultimate guiding principle. Nearly half of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials indicated that at least one more rate hike may be necessary later this year. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
10:26 Chart Analysis USD/JPY - 2026-06-19 07:06
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains offered against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and the USD/JPY pair stands comfortably around 161.30, its highest level since 2024, way beyond the level that triggered an alleged intervention on April 30.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/JPY remains steady around 1.61.30, with long-term highs at 1.61.95 in sight.The Yen is on the defensive amid rising bets of Fed rate hikes.Tokyo might intervene on Friday to take advantage of the thinned trading volumes amid the US Juneteenth festivity.The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains offered against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and the USD/JPY pair stands comfortably around 161.30, its highest level since 2024, way beyond the level that triggered an alleged intervention on April 30.Markets have remained oblivious to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to hike rates to 31-year highs earlier this week. Speculative traders have kept selling the Japanese currency, lured by rising bets that the US Federal Reserve will be forced to hike interest rates in the second half of the year.On Thursday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Minoru Kihara, reiterated that the authorities are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves “as needed at any time”. Tokyo tends to intervene in moments of thin liquidity, and, in this case, the Juneteenth bank holiday in the US provides a good opportunity.Technical Analysis: The 40-year high, at 161.95, is at hand
USD/JPY trades at 161.26, holding a constructive bullish tone with no sign of a trend shift on the horizon. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in 4-hour charts remains at 66.46, leaning toward overbought territory without yet flashing an exhaustion signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is modestly positive at 0.09, hinting that upside momentum is still in play.On the topside, Thursday's high at 161.79 and the 40-year high at 161.95 are the main resistance levels. Further up, bulls might target the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 11-18 rally, at 162.38.To the downside, the session low, at the 161.00 area, is holding bears for now, closing the path to Thursday's low, at 160.45, and the 160.00 psychological level.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.11% 0.09% -0.03% 0.04% 0.04% 0.30% 0.30% EUR -0.11% -0.03% -0.15% -0.07% -0.06% 0.17% 0.19% GBP -0.09% 0.03% -0.13% -0.05% -0.01% 0.22% 0.22% JPY 0.03% 0.15% 0.13% 0.06% 0.10% 0.31% 0.32% CAD -0.04% 0.07% 0.05% -0.06% 0.05% 0.25% 0.26% AUD -0.04% 0.06% 0.01% -0.10% -0.05% 0.22% 0.25% NZD -0.30% -0.17% -0.22% -0.31% -0.25% -0.22% -0.00% CHF -0.30% -0.19% -0.22% -0.32% -0.26% -0.25% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
USD/JPY trades at 161.26, holding a constructive bullish tone with no sign of a trend shift on the horizon. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in 4-hour charts remains at 66.46, leaning toward overbought territory without yet flashing an exhaustion signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is modestly positive at 0.09, hinting that upside momentum is still in play.On the topside, Thursday's high at 161.79 and the 40-year high at 161.95 are the main resistance levels. Further up, bulls might target the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 11-18 rally, at 162.38.To the downside, the session low, at the 161.00 area, is holding bears for now, closing the path to Thursday's low, at 160.45, and the 160.00 psychological level.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.11% 0.09% -0.03% 0.04% 0.04% 0.30% 0.30% EUR -0.11% -0.03% -0.15% -0.07% -0.06% 0.17% 0.19% GBP -0.09% 0.03% -0.13% -0.05% -0.01% 0.22% 0.22% JPY 0.03% 0.15% 0.13% 0.06% 0.10% 0.31% 0.32% CAD -0.04% 0.07% 0.05% -0.06% 0.05% 0.25% 0.26% AUD -0.04% 0.06% 0.01% -0.10% -0.05% 0.22% 0.25% NZD -0.30% -0.17% -0.22% -0.31% -0.25% -0.22% -0.00% CHF -0.30% -0.19% -0.22% -0.32% -0.26% -0.25% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
10:23 British Pound bounces off one-month low vs JPY on upbeat data; not out of the woods yet
The GBP/JPY cross attracts sellers for the third straight day on Friday, though it finds some support ahead of a one-month low set the previous day following the release of the upbeat UK data.
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Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register heavy weekly losses and currently trade just below the 213.00 round figure.The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Retail Sales grew 1.2% in May, reversing the previous month's revised fall of 1.0% and surpassing estimates for a reading of 0.5%. Furthermore, the core Retail Sales also beat expectations and rose by 1.2% during the reported month, compared with an upwardly revised 0.1% fall in April. The data provides some respite to the British Pound (GBP) and assists the GBP/JPY cross to rebound nearly 50 pips from levels just below mid-212.00s.That said, lingering domestic political risks, along with reduced bets for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE), might hold back the GBP bulls from placing aggressive bets. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham won a critical parliamentary by-election in northern England, clearing the path to attempt to oust British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Burnham said the result could be a "turning point" for British politics and told his party that this was a final chance to change direction.Meanwhile, traders have been scaling back BoE rate hike expectations following the release of softer inflation figures this week. Adding to this, the US-Iran peace deal eased concerns about the energy shock, endorsing the view that the BoE will hold rates steady in the coming months. In contrast, Minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) April meeting published earlier today showed that some board members called for raising rates more swiftly to avoid underlying inflation from overshooting.Adding to this, expectations that higher input prices for businesses will eventually be passed on to consumers and lift inflation keep further BoJ policy normalisation firmly on the table. In fact, BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said that the central bank is likely to keep hiking rates based on economic, price, and financial trends. This, along with speculations that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY), should contribute to capping any further recovery for the GBP/JPY cross. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jun 19, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.2% Consensus: 0.5% Previous: -1.3% Source: Office for National Statistics
10:22 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hits 14-month highs above 1.4150 as bullish bias prevails
USD/CAD holds ground for the seventh consecutive day, trading around 1.4140 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is moving upwards within the ascending channel pattern, signaling a persistent bullish bias.
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10:18 Euro: Dollar strength weighs on pair – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank reports that the Dollar Index rose 0.65% to 100.98, while EUR/USD slipped to 1.144. The move comes as US Treasuries partially retraced prior Fed‑driven losses, with the 10‑year yield down 3.4 bps and jobless claims slightly above expectations.
Deutsche Bank reports that the Dollar Index rose 0.65% to 100.98, while EUR/USD slipped to 1.144. The move comes as US Treasuries partially retraced prior Fed‑driven losses, with the 10‑year yield down 3.4 bps and jobless claims slightly above expectations. European yields were broadly steady, and the STOXX 600 ended a five‑day winning streak.Dollar index gains pressure Euro"So the 10yr yield fell by -3.4bps to 4.45%, whilst the 2yr yield fell by a marginal -0.6bps to 4.18% as curve flattening continued.""The more stable front-end rates also came amid some steady data with weekly initial jobless claims coming in a touch higher than expected, at 226k in the week ending June 13 (vs. 225k expected).""Ultimately, 10yr bund yields (+0.1bps) were essentially unchanged at 2.93%, whilst yields on 10yr OATs (+1.2bps) and BTPs (+1.1bps) were slightly higher.""The equity performance was also fairly mixed, with the STOXX 600 (-0.34%) ending a run of 5 consecutive gains, whilst the UK’s FTSE 100 (-1.04%) fell back.""However, Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.18%) hit an all-time high, France’s CAC 40 (+0.44%) hit its highest since the Iran conflict began, and Germany’s DAX (+0.37%) also rose."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:53 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower below 184.50 on intervention fears, bearish momentum persists
The EUR/JPY cross loses traction to near 184.45 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid fears of currency intervention from Japanese authorities.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:44 1.2%: British Pound remains subdued after UK Retail Sales beat forecasts
GBP/USD remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 1.3190 during the early European hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) pares its daily losses against the US Dollar (USD) but remains in negative territory following the release of key economic data from the United Kingdom (UK).
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The British Pound (GBP) pares its daily losses against the US Dollar (USD) but remains in negative territory following the release of key economic data from the United Kingdom (UK).The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released data on Friday, indicating that UK Retail Sales climbed 1.2% month-over-month (MoM) in May after falling by a revised 1.0% in April. The market forecast was for a rise of 0.5% in the reported month. The core Retail Sales rose by 1.2% MoM in May, compared with the previous decrease of 0.1% (revised from -0.4%) and the estimated 0.4% increase figure.The annual Retail Sales in the UK came in at 3.2% in May versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0%) and 1.9% expectations. The annual core Retail Sales jumped 4.6% in the same month, against April’s 1.1%. The reading came in above the consensus of 3.3%.The GBP/USD pair holds losses as the Greenback strengthens amid prevailing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. The newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that "price stability" remains the central bank's ultimate guiding principle. Nearly half of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials indicated that at least one more rate hike may be necessary later this year.Moreover, market caution revived on Friday as US-Iran talks collapsed following a CNN report that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip to the Bürgenstock summit. A spokesperson for the Vice President noted that the logistics of these negotiations "have never been simple or predictable," adding that no departure is imminent until a concrete update is established. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jun 19, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.2% Consensus: 0.5% Previous: -1.3% Source: Office for National Statistics
09:34 Euro holds losses against British Pound following bright UK Retail Sales data
The Euro (EUR) is pulling back against a stronger British Pound (GBP) on Friday, with the EUR/GBP pair trading at the 0.8665 area following rejection at one-month highs near 0.8685.
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UK Retail Sales figures released beat expectations in May, but the increase in government borrowing might have offset the positive impact on the GBP.Retail consumption increased by 1.2% in the UK in May, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics, more than twice the 0.5% expected and following a 1% decline in April. Excluding fuel purchases, sales of all other products also increased by 1.2% after a 0.1% contraction in the previous month.At the same time, National Statistics also revealed that Public Sector Net Borrowing rose to GBP 23.29 billion in May, from GBP 23.03 billion in April, against expectations of a decline to GBP 18.5 billion. These figures might increase concerns about the UK’s fiscal deficit and dent the Pound’s recovery.On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) met market expectations and left interest rates on hold at 3.75, with two policymakers calling for a quarter-point rate hike. The central bank also lowered its inflation forecasts for the rest of the year, but warned that the impact of the energy shock on the UK economy remains uncertain.Also on Thursday, the Labour Mayor of Manchester, Andrew Burnham, won the election in Makerfield, securing the parliamentary seat needed to challenge the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. The compact on the Pound, however, has been marginal so far. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jun 19, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.2% Consensus: 0.5% Previous: -1.3% Source: Office for National Statistics Economic Indicator Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) The Retail Sales ex-fuel data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers excluding automotive fuel. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jun 19, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.2% Consensus: 0.4% Previous: -0.4% Source: Office for National Statistics
09:12 ECB’s Wunsch says central bank may cut rates when the dynamics turn
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and the head of Belgium's central bank, Pierre Wunsch, said on Friday that the central bank may cut the interest rates when the dynamics turn.
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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and the head of Belgium's central bank, Pierre Wunsch, said on Friday that the central bank may cut the interest rates when the dynamics turn.Key quotesECB may cut rates when the dynamics turn.
If data is not going in right direction, I would plead for second hike in July.
If we see higher services inflation, we may want to hike another 25 bps to be on safe side.
Calls for conditional guidance on rates.
If data is ambiguous, I don’t see a need to rush.
ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
If data is not going in right direction, I would plead for second hike in July.
If we see higher services inflation, we may want to hike another 25 bps to be on safe side.
Calls for conditional guidance on rates.
If data is ambiguous, I don’t see a need to rush.
ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
09:11 Oil: Flow resumption tempers war premium – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank reports that Brent Oil initially fell after the US‑Iran memorandum of understanding, as investors faded war‑related economic fears, before reversing to close slightly higher near $79.85.
Deutsche Bank reports that Brent Oil initially fell after the US‑Iran memorandum of understanding, as investors faded war‑related economic fears, before reversing to close slightly higher near $79.85. The bank cites US and Iranian officials confirming renewed flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a 60‑day period of free safe passage, while governance and potential future fees remain unclear.Strait of Hormuz deal supports flows"Upbeat commentary from US officials also encouraged investors to fade concerns over the economic effects of the war, although an initial tumble in oil prices that followed the signing of the MoU did reverse as the session went on.""In fact, Brent crude ended up +0.38% higher on the day at $79.85/bbl by the close, after falling as low as $76.45/bbl intra-day.""An initial decline in oil prices was supported by signals that oil was starting to flow again, with Vice President JD Vance saying yesterday that 12.5mn barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, and that nearly a dozen ships had gone through the US blockade.""It showed that Iran would make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels, “with no charge for 60 days only”, and that Iran would be in dialogue with Oman “to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz”.""President Trump focused on the positives of the interim deal, posting “oil is flowing” and also saying that “We expect a complete Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel”."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:10 Japanese Yen: Intervention risks rise near 1986 lows – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that the Japanese Yen is trading near its weakest levels since 1986, with USD/JPY around 161.38 after touching 161.80 in late US trading.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that the Japanese Yen is trading near its weakest levels since 1986, with USD/JPY around 161.38 after touching 161.80 in late US trading. The bank notes growing market chatter about potential official intervention around these levels, especially with poor holiday liquidity, while long-dated JGB yields are 4–8 bps higher after in-line Japanese CPI data.Yen hovers near multi‑decade lows"The Nikkei is broadly unchanged though, but all eyes are on the Yen which is broadly unchanged at 161.38 after hitting 161.80 late in the US session last night and within a whisker of the weakest since 1986.""There's a lot of chatter about intervention likely around these levels, so we'll see if the holiday provides an opportunity to surprise the market and get a bigger move due to the poor holiday liquidity.""10-30yr JGBs are 4 to 8bps higher this morning.""There were no scares from the Japanese inflation numbers out this morning though with all measures in line with expectations.""Headline CPI rose by 1.5% y/y in May, up slightly from 1.4% in the previous month."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
09:01 United Kingdom Retail Sales beat expectations in April: What 1.2% means for the British Pound
Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) climbed 1.2% month-over-month (MoM) in May after falling by a revised 1.0% in April, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday.
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Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) climbed 1.2% month-over-month (MoM) in May after falling by a revised 1.0% in April, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday. The market forecast was for a rise of 0.5% in the reported month.The core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, rose by 3.2% MoM in May, compared with the previous decrease of 0.1% (revised from -0.4%) and the estimated a 0.4% increase figure. The annual Retail Sales in the UK came in at 3.2% in May versus 0.1% prior (revised from 0%) and 1.9% expectations.
More to come..
What do United Kingdom Retail Sales data mean for the British Pound?The UK Retail Sales report measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as a key indicator of consumer spending.Stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data suggests consumers are spending more despite economic uncertainties. Traders may expect the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain higher interest rates for longer, which support the GBP. On the other hand, weaker-than-expected Retail Sales figures generally signal slowing consumer demand and weigh on the Cable by increasing expectations for monetary easing.Technical Analysis: GBP/USD maintains negative outlook in the near term, with oversold RSI conditionIn the daily chart, GBP/USD keeps a clear bearish near‑term bias as spot holds below the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day moving average. The pair is pressing the lower side of its volatility envelope, with price now beneath the lower Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) has slipped to about 30, hinting at oversold conditions but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal.On the topside, initial resistance is now located at the broken lower Bollinger band near 1.3225, followed by the mid-band / 20-day SMA cluster close to 1.3390 and the 100-day moving average at 1.3450, with the upper Bollinger band near 1.3555 acting as a more distant cap. With no meaningful chart support immediately below current levels, any bounce would likely be corrective while the pair trades under these successive resistance layers.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri May 22, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -1.3% Consensus: -0.6% Previous: 0.7% Source: Office for National Statistics Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
More to come..
What do United Kingdom Retail Sales data mean for the British Pound?The UK Retail Sales report measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as a key indicator of consumer spending.Stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data suggests consumers are spending more despite economic uncertainties. Traders may expect the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain higher interest rates for longer, which support the GBP. On the other hand, weaker-than-expected Retail Sales figures generally signal slowing consumer demand and weigh on the Cable by increasing expectations for monetary easing.Technical Analysis: GBP/USD maintains negative outlook in the near term, with oversold RSI conditionIn the daily chart, GBP/USD keeps a clear bearish near‑term bias as spot holds below the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day moving average. The pair is pressing the lower side of its volatility envelope, with price now beneath the lower Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) has slipped to about 30, hinting at oversold conditions but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal.On the topside, initial resistance is now located at the broken lower Bollinger band near 1.3225, followed by the mid-band / 20-day SMA cluster close to 1.3390 and the 100-day moving average at 1.3450, with the upper Bollinger band near 1.3555 acting as a more distant cap. With no meaningful chart support immediately below current levels, any bounce would likely be corrective while the pair trades under these successive resistance layers.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Retail Sales (MoM) The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri May 22, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -1.3% Consensus: -0.6% Previous: 0.7% Source: Office for National Statistics Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:01 United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at £23.294B, above forecasts (£18.5B) in May
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at £23.294B, above forecasts (£18.5B) in May
09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in May: Actual (0.3%)
Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in May: Actual (0.3%)
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in May: Actual (1.2%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in May: Actual (1.2%)
09:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.2%, below expectations (2.5%) in May
Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.2%, below expectations (2.5%) in May
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in May: Actual (1.2%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in May: Actual (1.2%)
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.9%) in May: Actual (3.2%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.9%) in May: Actual (3.2%)
09:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) above expectations (3.3%) in May: Actual (4.6%)
United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) above expectations (3.3%) in May: Actual (4.6%)
08:35 Indonesian Rupiah inches higher despite MSCI’s concerns regarding investability
USD/IDR depreciates after three days of consecutive gains, trading around 17,840 during the Asian hours on Friday.
Indonesian Rupiah and equities face risk as MSCI raised investability concerns over coordinated trading and opaque shareholdings.A potential MSCI downgrade of Indonesian market from emerging to frontier status next week could trigger massive institutional sell-offs.The Indonesian Rupiah gains support as a US-Iran agreement improved global sentiment, easing oil prices and interest rate concerns.USD/IDR depreciates after three days of consecutive gains, trading around 17,840 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and local equities face heightened risk after Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) raised serious concerns regarding the country's investability, pointing to coordinated trading and opaque shareholdings.This warning exacerbates pressure on Indonesia, currently the world's worst-performing major stock market, just ahead of MSCI's upcoming market classification review. A potential downgrade from emerging to frontier market status next week could trigger massive institutional sell-offs, potentially driving up to $13 billion in outflows. This follows an already rocky year, with foreign investors having pulled $3.65 billion from Indonesian equities so far in 2026.The USD/IDR pair holds losses as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) receives support from improved global market sentiment after the US and Iran initial agreement, which ease the oil prices and higher interest rate concerns.The deal has kicked off 60 days of negotiations on a final deal to end the war, per CNN. The US military earlier confirmed it had ended its blockade on Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, as officials claim millions of barrels are once again flowing through the vital waterway.However, market caution prevailed Friday following reports that highly anticipated US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, have been derailed. The Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed the scheduled Friday meetings will not take place, while Iranian state-aligned media cited ongoing Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon as the catalyst for postponing their delegation's travel.Meanwhile, CNN reported that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip to the summit. A spokesperson for the Vice President noted that the logistics of these negotiations "have never been simple or predictable," adding that no departure is imminent until a concrete update is established.The USD/IDR pair may regain ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground as the traders price in the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. The newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that "price stability" remains the Fed's ultimate guiding principle. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) nearly half of the officials signaling that at least one rate hike could be required later this year.
08:29 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.1450 amid oversold RSI momentum
The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1425 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal provides some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for the major pair.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD softens to near 1.1425 in Friday’s early European session.The pair keeps a bearish vibe; downside pressure persists with an oversold RSI.The first upside barrier emerges at 1.1450; the initial support level to watch is 1.1411.The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1425 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal provides some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for the major pair.Reuters reported on Friday that the Swiss Foreign Ministry announced that US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock will not take place as planned on Friday. US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland.On Thursday, Iran's Tasnim news agency quoted informed sources as saying that the Iranian delegation's trip to Switzerland had not been finalized. Meanwhile, Lebanon's Al Mayadeen TV also quoted sources as saying that, due to the ongoing Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, the Iranian negotiation team has postponed its trip to Switzerland.Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/USD extends a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-day Bollinger middle band and well under the 100-day simple moving average. The pair is pressing the lower end of the Bollinger envelope, with price lodged beneath the latest lower band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30.6 is edging into oversold territory, hinting that downside pressure persists but could be nearing exhaustion.On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the lower Bollinger band at 1.1450, followed by the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.1577, where a recovery would start to ease immediate selling pressure. Above that, the 100-day SMA at 1.1665 and the upper Bollinger band near 1.1705 form a broader supply zone that is likely to cap rebounds unless buyers can reclaim it decisively. On the downside, the first contention level is seen at the March 13 low of 1.1411. Any follow-through selling below this level could pave the way to the April 23, 2025 low of 1.1308.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:57 WTI Price Forecast: Trades above $75.50 on Iran uncertainty; 200-day SMA holds the key
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the $72.80 region, or the lowest level since early March, and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday.
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The commodity currently trades just above mid-$75.00s, up 0.30% for the day, though it lacks bullish conviction. US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran, fueling uncertainty over the next phase of negotiations to end the conflict. Adding to this, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon threaten to unravel the US-Iran deal, which turns out to be another factor lending some support to Crude Oil prices. However, the resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz releases stranded oil in the Middle East Gulf, keeping a lid on a further upside for the black liquid.From a technical perspective, this week's breakdown and acceptance below the $83.00 mark, representing the lower end of a three-month-old trading range, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 31.77, hovers just above oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure is stretched but not yet capitulating. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below zero, near -1.46, hinting that bearish momentum is still in play.Crude Oil prices, however, hold above the technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $72.83. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the said support before positioning for further losses. As long as spot prices defend this moving average, dips are likely to be tested rather than cleanly extended. That said, bulls may need a clear momentum turn in RSI and MACD before attempting a sustained rebound from current levels.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)WTI daily chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
07:40 Swiss Franc weakens as traders ramp up US rate hike bets, Vance canceled trip to talks with Iran
The USD/CHF pair advances to around 0.8075, the highest since December 10, 2025, during the early European session on Friday.
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US Vice President JD Vance pulled out of a planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran. SNB left its key interest rate at 0%, with a focus on currency risks. The USD/CHF pair advances to around 0.8075, the highest since December 10, 2025, during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) as the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials left interest rates unchanged at its June policy meeting and signaled the possibility of higher rates later this year. Hawkish signals from the Fed provide some support to the Greenback. On Wednesday, the US central bank decided to hold its benchmark interest rate steady between 3.50% and 3.75% after Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the central bank. Warsh said during the press conference that “price stability” would be the Fed’s guiding principle.Futures traders have priced in that the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting, with some chance seen of a move as soon as next month’s meeting. On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance cancelled a planned trip to meet Iranian negotiators in Switzerland to begin complex talks on implementing a 14-point agreement struck between Tehran and Washington to end their war. Traders will closely watch the US-Iran peace deal developments. Uncertainty in the Middle East could underpin the USD against the CHF in the near term. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its main policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday, as widely expected by markets, keeping borrowing costs well below those seen in other major economies. The SNB also said that it is ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets if a rebound in demand for the safe-haven franc drives the currency higher. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 12,607.38 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,803.82 it cost on Thursday.The price for Gold decreased to INR 147,047.30 per tola from INR 149,341.20 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram12,607.3810 Grams126,071.60Tola147,047.30Troy Ounce392,128.10FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:32 Indian Rupee rises on FCNR-B inflows, dollar selling by exporters
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its gains for the second consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair maintained a downward bias as a shift in daily foreign flows offered fresh support to the Indian Rupee.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/INR falls due to robust FCNR-B inflows, bank fixing-related selling, and aggressive dollar liquidation by exporters.The Indian Rupee strengthened as crude oil prices plunged following a major diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran.The US Dollar may further strengthen as traders price in hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed's policy outlook.The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its gains for the second consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair maintained a downward bias as a shift in daily foreign flows offered fresh support to the Indian Rupee.Solid FCNR-B flows and dollar selling by exportersMarket analysts attribute the USD/INR’s downside largely to fixing-related dollar selling across private and foreign banks, along with the robust Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank (FCNR-B) inflows.Additionally, aggressive dollar liquidation by exporters further weighed on the pair, offsetting a stronger US Dollar (USD) and prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to step in intermittently to absorb excess liquidity.Oil prices ease due to US-Iran initial agreementThe Indian Rupee gains amid a sharp decline in crude oil prices following a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran. According to media reports, the two nations have signed an initial agreement, initiating a 60-day negotiation window for a permanent peace deal. Additionally, the US military confirmed it has lifted its blockade on Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, restoring vital energy shipping routes. While these developments are expected to lift risk sentiment and support emerging market currencies in the near term, traders remain cautious, noting that a full recovery in global shipping and energy volumes will likely take months.Fed rate hike odds lift US DollarHowever, the USD/INR pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar gains ground as the traders price in the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. In his debut press conference, newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that "price stability" remains the Fed's ultimate guiding principle.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously on Wednesday to hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate steady at a range of 3.5%–3.75%. However, the decision carried a hawkish tone, with nearly half of the officials signaling that at least one rate hike could be required later this year.Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds losses below 94.50, moving averagesUSD/INR continues to depreciate for the second successive day, trading around 94.30 at the time of writing. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the spot price is remaining close to the descending triangle bottom, indicating that the market is testing whether buyers still have the cash and the will to defend the current levels.The USD/INR pair holds a bearish near-term bias as spot remains below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just above 40, suggesting subdued downside momentum but not yet signaling oversold conditions, leaving the pair vulnerable while it trades under this near-term moving-average barrier.The initial resistance is aligned with the 50-period EMA at 94.72, followed closely by the nine-period EMA at 94.76, forming a tight cap that would need to be reclaimed to ease immediate selling pressure. On the downside, the immediate support lies at the descending triangle bottom around 94.30.USD/INR: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD INR USD 0.16% 0.16% -0.02% 0.11% 0.25% 0.36% -0.08% EUR -0.16% -0.00% -0.15% -0.05% 0.10% 0.19% -0.16% GBP -0.16% 0.00% -0.17% -0.05% 0.12% 0.22% -0.21% JPY 0.02% 0.15% 0.17% 0.10% 0.28% 0.36% -0.01% CAD -0.11% 0.05% 0.05% -0.10% 0.19% 0.25% -0.13% AUD -0.25% -0.10% -0.12% -0.28% -0.19% 0.08% -0.30% NZD -0.36% -0.19% -0.22% -0.36% -0.25% -0.08% -0.39% INR 0.08% 0.16% 0.21% 0.00% 0.13% 0.30% 0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
07:11 British Pound slides to fresh low since April vs bullish USD amid UK political crisis
The GBP/USD pair attracts some follow-through selling for the third straight day and weakens further below the 1.3200 mark, hitting a fresh low since April during the Asian session on Friday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD prolongs its downtrend for the third straight day amid a combination of negative factors.The UK political turmoil undermines the GBP amid reduced bets for aggressive rate hikes by the BoE.The Fed’s hawkish tilt and the Iran uncertainty boost the USD, further exerting pressure on the pair.The GBP/USD pair attracts some follow-through selling for the third straight day and weakens further below the 1.3200 mark, hitting a fresh low since April during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain on track to register heavy weekly losses, and the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.The British Pound (GBP) continues with its relative underperformance in the wake of lingering domestic political risks, which, along with a bullish US Dollar (USD), validates the near-term negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham cleared a path to attempt to oust British Prime Minister Keir Starmer after winning a parliamentary seat in northern England on Friday. In his victory speech, Burnham said the result could be a "turning point" for British politics and told his party that this was a final chance to change direction.Meanwhile, traders have scaled back expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) following the release of softer inflation figures earlier this week. Furthermore, the US-Iran peace deal eased concerns about the energy shock, endorsing the view that the BoE will hold interest rates steady. This is seen as another factor undermining the GBP. The USD, on the other hand, stands firm near its highest level since late March amid the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) more hawkish tilt, signaling the possibility of at least one rate hike by the year-end.On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip for talks with Iran in Switzerland, saying that the meeting wasn’t yet finalized. Adding to this, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon threaten to unravel the US-Iran deal. This further benefits the safe-haven USD and backs the case for an extension of the GBP/USD pair's steep downfall from the weekly swing high, near the 1.3460 region. This, in turn, suggests that any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity as traders now look to UK monthly Retail Sales data for a fresh impetus. Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.17% 1.70% 0.74% 1.14% 0.66% 1.61% 1.32% EUR -1.17% 0.50% -0.42% -0.03% -0.53% 0.43% 0.14% GBP -1.70% -0.50% -1.09% -0.52% -1.03% -0.07% -0.35% JPY -0.74% 0.42% 1.09% 0.39% -0.10% 0.89% 0.56% CAD -1.14% 0.03% 0.52% -0.39% -0.52% 0.50% 0.16% AUD -0.66% 0.53% 1.03% 0.10% 0.52% 0.96% 0.69% NZD -1.61% -0.43% 0.07% -0.89% -0.50% -0.96% -0.28% CHF -1.32% -0.14% 0.35% -0.56% -0.16% -0.69% 0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
07:01 Gold weakens further below $4,200 as hawkish Fed and Iran uncertainty boost USD
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts sellers for the third straight day on Friday and weakens further below the $4,200 mark, hitting a fresh weekly low during the Asian session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold prolonged its downtrend for the third straight day on Friday amid a bullish US Dollar.The Fed’s hawkish tilt continues to underpin the buck and weigh on the non-yielding bullion.US Vice President cancels trip to Switzerland for Iran talks, further benefiting the Greenback.Gold (XAU/USD) attracts sellers for the third straight day on Friday and weakens further below the $4,200 mark, hitting a fresh weekly low during the Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) stands firm near its highest level since May 2025 in the face of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, which, in turn, is seen driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations turns out to be another factor that underpins the USD's reserve currency status and exerts additional pressure on the commodity.The US central bank decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in its current 3.5% to 3.75% target range at the end of the first meeting under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. However, the so-called dot plot indicated that nine of the Fed's 19 committed members believed that they would need to raise the policy rate this year if inflation remains sticky. Furthermore, Kevin Warsh’s comments during the post-meeting press conference focused strongly on price stability, suggesting that the Fed might not rush to cut interest rates even in the face of declining growth.According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 70% chance that the US central bank will hike rates in September. This keeps US Treasury bond yields elevated and continues to support the buck. Meanwhile, the optimism led by an interim US-Iran peace deal fades as key issues between the two countries remain unresolved. Moreover, US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip for talks with Iran in Switzerland, saying that the meeting wasn’t yet finalized. Adding to this, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon threaten to unravel the US-Iran deal.Any signs of renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations could further boost the safe-haven USD. Meanwhile, the liquidity is likely to remain low amid a US bank holiday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. Nevertheless, the Gold seems poised to register losses for the third straight week as the market focus remains glued to further geopolitical developments.XAU/USD daily chartGold bears have the upper hand while below 100-day EMA strong hurdleFrom a technical perspective, this week's repeated failures to breakout through the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the subsequent slide favor the XAU/USD bears. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 36, reflecting weak demand rather than outright oversold conditions. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in negative territory with the line below its signal and a subdued histogram, which suggests ongoing downside pressure.Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $4,358.53 is the first meaningful resistance, and bulls would need a daily close above this level to ease the current downside bias and hint at a more sustained recovery phase. Until then, the XAU/USD pair remains vulnerable to further declines, and further fresh selling is likely to be driven by momentum rather than by interaction with a specific technical floor on the daily chart.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
06:12 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $70.50 due to Fed rate hike odds
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around $64.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. Silver prices fall as the traders price in the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook.
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Silver prices fall as the traders price in the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Silver, reducing their appeal.In his debut press conference, newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that "price stability" remains the Fed's ultimate guiding principle. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously on Wednesday to hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate steady at a range of 3.5%–3.75%. However, the decision carried a hawkish tone, with nearly half of the officials signaling that at least one rate hike could be required later this year.The hawkish Fed signals outweigh the positive impact of the US-Iran peace agreement, which pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns. The US and Iran signed an initial agreement, kicking off 60 days of negotiations on a final deal to end the war, per CNN.Additionally, the US military earlier confirmed it had ended its blockade on Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, as officials claim millions of barrels are once again flowing through the vital waterway. Positive developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal could boost riskier assets, such as the shared currency, in the near term. However, traders remained cautious, expecting it to take months for shipping and energy flows to recover to pre-conflict levels. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
05:36 UK Labour's Andy Burnham wins Makerfield by-election, paving way to challenge PM Starmer
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham could now challenge UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the governing Labour Party and the country after winning a parliamentary seat in northern England on Friday, CNN reported on Friday.
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Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham could now challenge UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the governing Labour Party and the country after winning a parliamentary seat in northern England on Friday, CNN reported on Friday.Burnham won the contest in Makerfield in northwest England with 24,927 of the votes, while Nigel Farage's anti-immigration Reform UK party came second with 15,696 votes.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is down 0.01% on the day to trade at 1.3205. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
05:34 United States Dollar Index remains near 101.00 amid Fed hawkish outlook
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, remains flat after two days of gains and is trading around 100.83 during the Asian hours on Friday.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
04:56 New Zealand Dollar drops to fresh low since April as hawkish Fed bets support USD
The NZD/USD pair turns lower for the third straight day following a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.5775 region and touches a fresh low since April 8 in the last hour.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD remains on the defensive as the Fed’s hawkish tilt continues to underpin the USD.US Vice President JD Vance cancels his trip for talks with Iran, keeping a lid on the optimism.Bets for more aggressive RBNZ rate hikes could support the NZD and limit losses for the pair.The NZD/USD pair turns lower for the third straight day following a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.5775 region and touches a fresh low since April 8 in the last hour. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-0.5700s and seem poised to register heavy weekly losses amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, preserves its recent strength to the highest level since May 2025 in the face of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt. In fact, policymakers projected the fed funds rate at 3.8% by the end of this year, up from 3.4% in March, implying at least one 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike in the coming months. This, to a larger extent, overshadows the US-Iran peace deal and continues to underpin the buck, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair.Meanwhile, CNN reported that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland. This further keeps a lid on the latest optimism and turns out to be another factor supporting the Greenback. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish shift might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and limit losses for the NZD/USD pair. In fact, the RBNZ indicated that the OCR could reach roughly 2.85% by the end of this year, implying up to three rate hikes.Moving ahead, the liquidity and trading volumes could remain low in the face of a US bank holiday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. This further makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the recent retracement slide from the vicinity of the 0.6000 psychological mark, or the May monthly swing high. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.04% 1.60% 0.66% 1.11% 0.55% 1.41% 1.14% EUR -1.04% 0.52% -0.37% 0.06% -0.51% 0.36% 0.09% GBP -1.60% -0.52% -1.06% -0.44% -1.04% -0.17% -0.44% JPY -0.66% 0.37% 1.06% 0.45% -0.11% 0.79% 0.47% CAD -1.11% -0.06% 0.44% -0.45% -0.60% 0.33% 0.02% AUD -0.55% 0.51% 1.04% 0.11% 0.60% 0.88% 0.60% NZD -1.41% -0.36% 0.17% -0.79% -0.33% -0.88% -0.27% CHF -1.14% -0.09% 0.44% -0.47% -0.02% -0.60% 0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
04:51 Australian Dollar softens to near 0.7000 as Vice President canceled trip to talks with Iran
The AUD/USD pair loses momentum to near 0.7010 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) after reports that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland, raising concerns about the US-Iran peace deal.
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US Vice President cancels trip to Switzerland for Iran talks. Fed's hawkish hold leads to rate-hike bets, supporting the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair loses momentum to near 0.7010 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) after reports that US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland, raising concerns about the US-Iran peace deal. CNN reported on Friday that the White House indicated that the first round of technical talks with Iran under the memorandum of understanding signed this week will not take place on Friday. Vance said that the meeting wasn’t yet finalized, as it’s difficult for the Iranian officials to get out of Iran. Vice President added that he thought he would travel to Switzerland at some point this weekend.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the peace agreement. A lack of progress in US-Iran or any signs of renewed tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair.Furthermore, the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might contribute to the USD’s upside. The US central bank on Wednesday decided to hold the interest rates steady in a 3.50% to 3.75% range as Kevin Warsh began his era in charge with a sweeping policy review. Fed officials signaled the chance of higher rates as they assess the impacts of the Iran war on inflation. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
"We've seen very spectacular data in the U.S. that's been surprising to the upside since late April, then the Fed was as hawkish as market expectations could ever have been, so we've seen more dollar upside," said Sarah Ying, head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.
"We've seen very spectacular data in the U.S. that's been surprising to the upside since late April, then the Fed was as hawkish as market expectations could ever have been, so we've seen more dollar upside," said Sarah Ying, head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.
04:26 Canadian Dollar declines as oil prices ease
USD/CAD rises for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.4140 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD rises as falling oil prices weaken the commodity-dependent Canadian Dollar.CENTCOM has lifted all maritime restrictions on traffic traveling to and from Iranian ports and coastal waters.A hawkish Fed pause saw nearly half of the officials signaling another rate hike later this year.USD/CAD rises for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.4140 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices. Canada is a major net exporter of crude oil, primarily sending its supply to the United States (US). Lower oil prices weigh on Canada's export revenues, which fundamentally pressure the CAD down.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower, slipping to around $75.10 per barrel at the time of writing and reversing the modest gains recorded in the previous session. The US oil benchmark is now on track to lock in a steep weekly loss of roughly 9.5% as energy investors react to rapidly improving shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz after US President Donald Trump signed a deal with Iran to end the war.The US and Iran signed an initial agreement, kicking off 60 days of negotiations on a final deal to end the war, per CNN. Additionally, the US military earlier confirmed it had ended its blockade on Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, as officials claim millions of barrels are once again flowing through the vital waterway. Positive developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal could boost riskier assets, such as the shared currency, in the near term.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously on Wednesday to hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate steady at a range of 3.5%–3.75%. However, the decision carried a hawkish tone, with nearly half of the officials signaling that at least one rate hike could be required later this year.This hawkish pause by the central bank could bolster the US Dollar (USD) and provide a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. In his debut press conference, newly appointed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that "price stability" remains the Fed's ultimate guiding principle. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
04:25 US Vice President JD Vance cancels trip to Switzerland for Iran talks
US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland, CNN reported on Friday.
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US Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to talks with Iran in Switzerland, CNN reported on Friday.A spokesman stated, “As the Vice President said at his press conference, the plans for the upcoming technical talks have not been finalized, and the U.S. delegation has been prepared to depart at the first available opportunity. But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now the Vice President is not departing tonight. We will let you know as soon as we have a concrete update about next steps.”Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 0.23% on the day at $75.28. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
04:19 Japanese Yen recovers from two-year low vs USD as BoJ hike bets offset Japan's softer CPI
The USD/JPY pair is seen extending the previous day's late pullback from the 161.80 region, or a fresh high since July 2024, and drifting lower during the Asian session on Friday.
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Spot prices slide to the 161.00 mark in the last hour and, for now, seem to have snapped a five-day winning streak, though the near-term bias seems tilted in favor of bullish traders.The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened following the release of Minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) April meeting, which showed that some board members called for raising interest rates more swiftly to avoid underlying inflation from overshooting. This comes on top of an expected pickup in inflation over the coming months as higher input prices for businesses will eventually be passed on to consumers, and keeps further BoJ policy normalisation firmly on the table. Moreover, BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said that the central bank is likely to keep hiking rates based on economic, price, and financial trends.Himino added that currency fluctuation is among the key factors influencing Japan’s economy and prices. Meanwhile, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that the government is ready to respond appropriately to exchange-rate moves at any time. This, in turn, fuels intervention fears and lends additional support to the JPY, offsetting softer inflation figures from Japan. In fact, the Japan Statistics Bureau reported that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.5% YoY in May, while a gauge excluding Fresh food arrived at 1.4%.Meanwhile, a core reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices slowed from the 1.9% YoY rate in April and rose 1.8% last month, remaining below the BoJ’s 2% annual target for a fourth straight month and marking its weakest level in four years. The data, however, does little to provide any impetus to the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, consolidates its strong weekly gains to the highest level since May 2025 and further contributes to the offered tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair, though any meaningful depreciating move still seems elusive.The persistently wide interest rate differential between Japan and the US keeps the JPY carry trade active. In fact, the BoJ raised interest rates to 1.00%, or the highest since 1995, on Tuesday, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its interest rate target range of 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday. This gap might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets and help limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that spot prices have topped out in the near-term and positioning for a deeper corrective pullback. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% -0.01% -0.18% 0.04% 0.02% -0.04% 0.00% EUR 0.03% 0.01% -0.15% 0.07% 0.06% -0.03% 0.04% GBP 0.01% -0.01% -0.17% 0.04% 0.07% -0.02% 0.03% JPY 0.18% 0.15% 0.17% 0.20% 0.22% 0.12% 0.17% CAD -0.04% -0.07% -0.04% -0.20% 0.04% -0.08% -0.03% AUD -0.02% -0.06% -0.07% -0.22% -0.04% -0.11% -0.03% NZD 0.04% 0.03% 0.02% -0.12% 0.08% 0.11% 0.05% CHF -0.00% -0.04% -0.03% -0.17% 0.03% 0.03% -0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
04:00 WTI falls to near $75.00 as shipping conditions improve in Hormuz
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower during Friday's Asian trading hours, slipping to around $75.10 per barrel and reversing the modest gains recorded in the previous session.
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The US oil benchmark is now on track to lock in a steep weekly loss of roughly 9.5% as energy investors react to rapidly improving shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. The market downturn comes on the heels of a newly implemented interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which has significantly defused geopolitical risk premiums in the energy sector.The breakthrough diplomatic deal brings an end to a prolonged regional conflict that had previously triggered the largest oil supply disruption on record. Signaling a swift return to normalization, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it has lifted all maritime restrictions on traffic traveling to and from Iranian ports and coastal waters. To ensure safe passage, the Joint Maritime Information Center has advised commercial vessels transiting the vital waterway to adjust their routes closer to Oman’s coastline to minimize any lingering risks from sea mines.A wave of supply is already hitting the market as tankers carrying previously stranded crude oil began exiting the strategic chokepoint on Thursday, while Kuwait simultaneously announced plans to begin ramping up its domestic production. Consequently, global oil prices have now erased nearly all of the risk-driven gains accumulated since the Middle East conflict first erupted in late February. US Vice President JD Vance reinforced this shifting reality, stating that 12.5 million barrels of oil had successfully passed through the waterway overnight without a single ship being targeted by Iranian forces.In Tehran, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei officially confirmed his approval of the long-awaited plan, though he framed the agreement with defiant rhetoric. Khamenei accused U.S. President Donald Trump of finalizing the accord out of sheer "desperation." He further cautioned that while the interim deal paves the way for direct, in-person negotiations between Washington and Tehran moving forward, the diplomatic talks should not be misinterpreted as an acceptance of the American position. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:58 Japan’s Katayama says ready to take strong action on speculative FX moves
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government is prepared to take decisive action against speculative activity in the foreign exchange market.
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Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government is prepared to take decisive action against speculative activity in the foreign exchange market. Key quotes Ready to take strong action on speculative forex moves.
Confirmed at G7 meetings that decisive action can be taken. Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.06% on the day at 161.21. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Confirmed at G7 meetings that decisive action can be taken. Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.06% on the day at 161.21. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
03:53 Euro drifts higher above 1.1450 as US, Iran sign initial agreement to end war
The EUR/USD pair recovers some lost ground near 1.1460, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Friday.
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EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
03:32 BoJ’s Himino: Central bank likely to keep hiking rates based on economic, price, financial trends
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino said on Friday that the Japanese central bank likely to keep hiking rates based on economic, price and financial trends. Himino added that currency moves may impact inflation expectations, core inflation, so we will keep monitoring developments closely.
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Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino said on Friday that the Japanese central bank likely to keep hiking rates based on economic, price and financial trends. Himino added that currency moves may impact inflation expectations, core inflation, so we will keep monitoring developments closely. Key quotesCentral bank likely to keep hiking rates based on economic, price, financial trends.
Central bank to weigh pace and timing of rate increases, focusing on baseline scenario probability and risks.
Core inflation nearing 2% threshold.
Recent price increases not only from temporary supply shock, risk of core inflation straying from target.
Rising oil prices drag on growth, but Japan’s economy remains robust on strong corporate profits and household income.
Currency fluctuations among key factors influencing Japan’s economy, prices.
Monetary policy not aimed at currency moves, but FX fluctuations now affect inflation more due to shifts in corporate behavior.
Currency moves may impact inflation expectations, core inflation, so we will keep monitoring developments closely. Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.06% on the day at 161.21. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Central bank to weigh pace and timing of rate increases, focusing on baseline scenario probability and risks.
Core inflation nearing 2% threshold.
Recent price increases not only from temporary supply shock, risk of core inflation straying from target.
Rising oil prices drag on growth, but Japan’s economy remains robust on strong corporate profits and household income.
Currency fluctuations among key factors influencing Japan’s economy, prices.
Monetary policy not aimed at currency moves, but FX fluctuations now affect inflation more due to shifts in corporate behavior.
Currency moves may impact inflation expectations, core inflation, so we will keep monitoring developments closely. Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is down 0.06% on the day at 161.21. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
02:53 BoJ Minutes: Members want more time to assess Middle East impact on Japan’s economy, prices
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Thursday, per the BoJ Minutes of the April meeting.
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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Thursday, per the BoJ Minutes of the April meeting. Key quotesMany members want more time to assess Middle East impact on Japan’s economy, prices.
Several members noted low probability of baseline forecasts materialising, difficult to weigh downside risks to growth against upside inflation risks.
One member says situation not urgent enough to justify hastening rate increases.
Market reaction to the BoJ Minutes At the time of writing, USD/JPY is up 0.41% on the day at 161.31. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Several members noted low probability of baseline forecasts materialising, difficult to weigh downside risks to growth against upside inflation risks.
One member says situation not urgent enough to justify hastening rate increases.
Market reaction to the BoJ Minutes At the time of writing, USD/JPY is up 0.41% on the day at 161.31. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
02:42 US ends naval blockade as Iran's supreme leader says Trump made deal 'out of desperation’
The US-Iran interim peace deal took effect, and shipping started returning to the Strait of Hormuz as the US dropped its naval blockade of Iran, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
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The US-Iran interim peace deal took effect, and shipping started returning to the Strait of Hormuz as the US dropped its naval blockade of Iran, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the end of the blockade on X "in accordance with the President's direction" and said the navy will “remain in the general area” to ensure the agreement with Iran is “adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect.”US Vice President JD Vance stated that 12.5 million barrels of oil had passed through the critical waterway in the previous night and that Iranian forces had not fired on any ships.Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, accused US President Donald Trump of making a deal with Tehran out of “desperation”, as he confirmed his approval of the long-awaited plan.Khamenei said that while there would be "in-person negotiations in the future" between Iran and the US, this "will not mean acceptance of the enemy's position.”Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.31% on the day at $75.20. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:36 Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) declined to 1.8% in May from previous 1.9%
Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) declined to 1.8% in May from previous 1.9%
02:31 Japan’s National CPI rises 1.5% YoY in May, Core CPI climbs as expected
Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.5% YoY in May, compared to the previous reading of 1.4%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.
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Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.5% YoY in May, compared to the previous reading of 1.4%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.Further details unveil that the National CPI ex Fresh food arrived at 1.4% YoY in May versus 1.4% prior. The figure came in line with the market consensus. Market reaction to Japan’s National CPI dataFollowing Japan’s CPI inflation data, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.42% on the day at 161.32. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
02:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.4% to 1.5% in May
Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.4% to 1.5% in May
02:30 Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) meets expectations (1.4%) in May
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) meets expectations (1.4%) in May
02:22 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) registered at $800M, below expectations ($875M) in May
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) registered at $800M, below expectations ($875M) in May
02:22 New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) fell from previous $-2.76B to $-3.36B in May
New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) fell from previous $-2.76B to $-3.36B in May
02:17 Gold declines to near $4,200 as hawkish Fed stance offsets support from US-Iran peace deal
Gold price (XAU/USD) loses ground to near $4,210 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends the decline after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady in the June policy meeting but signaled rate hikes could come this year.
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Fed's hawkish shift undermines the Gold price, a non-yielding asset. Optimism that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will ease inflation risks might help limit the precious metal’s losses. Gold price (XAU/USD) loses ground to near $4,210 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extends the decline after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady in the June policy meeting but signaled rate hikes could come this year. The Fed on Wednesday made its first decision on interest rates under new chair Kevin Warsh, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to hold rates between 3.5% and 3.75%. The federal funds rate has held there since the US central bank lowered rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the latter part of 2025. Fed officials signaled the chance of higher rates as they assess the impacts of the Iran war on inflation.“Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” said Kevin Warsh in his debut press conference as chairman. Officials are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.”It’s worth noting that Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.On the other hand, the US-Iran peace agreement could provide some support to the yellow metal. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the interim peace deal between both countries took effect, and shipping started returning to the Strait of Hormuz as the US declared an end to its blockade and a complex negotiating period over Tehran’s nuclear program began in earnest.Earlier Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that “oil is flowing,” hours after signing a memorandum of agreement to extend a ceasefire and begin negotiations to end the conflict he started alongside Israel at the end of February. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
02:07 British Pound Sterling slides as cheaper Crude Oil masks the inflation pipeline
The Bank of England (BoE) delivered the hawkish hold the market expected on Thursday, and a second member of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) joined the push to raise the Bank Rate. Sterling fell anyway, sliding through the 1.3300 handle to its lowest level since early April, close to 1.3200.
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Sterling fell anyway, sliding through the 1.3300 handle to its lowest level since early April, close to 1.3200. On its face, the hawkishness looks stubborn against a ceasefire dragging Crude Oil toward pre-war lows and a UK headline inflation rate that flatly refused to rise.That apparent contradiction dissolves the moment you stop watching the Oil headline. The price pressure the committee is leaning against sits in surging services inflation already on the board, and in the food and petrochemical costs the Strait of Hormuz closure has baked into the supply chain, neither of which a ceasefire reverses.Cheaper oil, hotter coreThe May print only looked benign on the surface. Headline inflation held at 2.8%, below the 3.0% the market expected, but it stayed flat because temporarily cheaper food and easing housing offset a sharp rise in petrol; food inflation actually slipped to 2.2%, its lowest since December 2024.Underneath, the categories the BoE watches most turned the other way. Services inflation, its preferred read on domestic persistence, jumped to 3.7% from 3.2%, and core inflation ticked up to 2.6%. With regular pay still running at 3.4%, the two dissenters had a live case for a hike that the flat headline conveniently buried.The bill still in transitThe bigger worry is the part of the shock that has not landed yet. The Hormuz closure since late February choked off roughly a third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade and drove nitrogen prices up by around 80% at the peak, with Gulf ammonia and urea production knocked offline. That cost grinds through planting, harvests and supply contracts long before it reaches a grocery shelf.A reopening does not undo months of stranded cargo or instantly restart damaged plants, and the pass-through to food and petrochemical-linked goods typically lags by months. The BoE's own projections already pencil inflation higher into the second half of the year on energy and food, which is exactly the second-round pressure that cheaper spot Crude Oil disguises rather than removes.Why the Pound fell anywayNone of that stopped Sterling from sliding, because the BoE was simply out-hawked across the Atlantic. New Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh used his debut to deliver a hawkish hold of his own, lifting the odds of a September US rate hike and pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) to a two-month high.With the rate differential swinging the Dollar's way, the market even trimmed its BoE hike bets on the soft headline and cheaper oil, arguably the wrong read. Domestic politics did the rest, as the Makerfield by-election and leadership speculation unsettled gilts and the Pound.What the calendar threatens nextThe near-term test arrives Friday at 06:00 GMT with UK Retail Sales for May, where consensus looks for a rebound of around 0.5% MoM after a sharp prior drop; a soft number would harden the growth worries already weighing on Sterling.The following week sharpens the divergence, opening with UK flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys on Tuesday and a run of BoE speakers who will show how firm that hawkish vote really is, before US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data on Thursday, the Fed's favoured inflation gauge, either validates or undercuts the Dollar's edge.Resistance: The 1.3300 handle, lost on the way down, now caps the first bounce, with the prior pivot near 1.3450 the next meaningful supply.Support: The 1.3200 handle is the immediate line after Thursday's low just beneath it; a clean break exposes 1.3150 and then 1.3100, with the structural floor close to 1.3000.Bias: Bearish while price holds below 1.3300, with the firm Dollar and UK politics steering the near-term tape and the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) sitting mid-range rather than oversold, leaving room for another leg lower. The risk to that view is the inflation the move is ignoring: if next week's services-heavy data and the pipeline food and petrochemical pressure push hike bets back into the curve, or US PCE softens, the recovery through 1.3300 could be quick.GBP/USD 5-minute chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:01 United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence registered at -23 above expectations (-24) in June
United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence registered at -23 above expectations (-24) in June
01:45 New Zealand Imports: $8.08B (May) vs $6.7B
New Zealand Imports: $8.08B (May) vs $6.7B
01:45 New Zealand Exports increased to $8.88B in May from previous $8.62B
New Zealand Exports increased to $8.88B in May from previous $8.62B
01:22 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Sellers eye break below 100-day SMA
The GBP/JPY retreats during the North American session on Thursday, down 0.21% as the Pound Sterling depreciates, despite the Bank of England (BoE) holding rates unchanged. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 213.11 after peaking near 214.06.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY tests 100-day SMA as Yen momentum improves.RSI near 42 signals sellers retain near-term control.Break below 212.79 exposes 211.26 and 210.45 supports.The GBP/JPY retreats during the North American session on Thursday, down 0.21% as the Pound Sterling depreciates, despite the Bank of England (BoE) holding rates unchanged. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 213.11 after peaking near 214.06.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a price action perspective, the GBP/JPY is neutral-biased, though over the last couple of trading days, the Yen has shown signs of life, driving the cross-pair to test key support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 212.79.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that momentum favors further downside, with the index aiming lower, at 41.68. Hence, the GBP/JPY might continue to edge lower.If GBP/JPY clears decisively the 199-day SMA, the next support would be the May 18 daily low of 211.26. Below sits the April 30 swing low of 210.45, before the cross aims toward the 200-day SMA at 209.32.On the other hand, GBP/JPY must clear the 50-day SMA at 214.25 to allow buyers to challenge the 215.00 milestone. Up next, the area of interest is the 216.00 mark.GBP/JPY Price Chart – DailyGBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.01% 1.58% 0.74% 1.03% 0.40% 1.26% 1.02% EUR -1.01% 0.53% -0.24% 0.00% -0.63% 0.25% 0.00% GBP -1.58% -0.53% -0.96% -0.51% -1.16% -0.27% -0.52% JPY -0.74% 0.24% 0.96% 0.27% -0.35% 0.55% 0.26% CAD -1.03% -0.01% 0.51% -0.27% -0.66% 0.29% -0.01% AUD -0.40% 0.63% 1.16% 0.35% 0.66% 0.89% 0.64% NZD -1.26% -0.25% 0.27% -0.55% -0.29% -0.89% -0.25% CHF -1.02% -0.00% 0.52% -0.26% 0.00% -0.64% 0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
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การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
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