ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

09:00 Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) rose from previous 1.8B to 9.3B in March
Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) rose from previous 1.8B to 9.3B in March

08:40 Australian Dollar trades mixed in countdown to the Aussie CPI, Fed policy
The Australian Dollar (AUD) demonstrated a mixed performance against its major currency peers, trading marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7180 during the European trading session on Tuesday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar trades mixed against its peers ahead of the Aussie Q1 CPI data.Australian Q1 CPI is expected to have grown strongly by 4.1% Year-on-Year (YoY).Investors await the Fed’s monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) demonstrated a mixed performance against its major currency peers, trading marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7180 during the European trading session on Tuesday. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.11% 0.08% -0.18% 0.08% 0.15% 0.27% 0.23% EUR -0.11% -0.04% -0.28% -0.05% 0.02% 0.12% 0.12% GBP -0.08% 0.04% -0.24% -0.00% 0.07% 0.16% 0.16% JPY 0.18% 0.28% 0.24% 0.25% 0.31% 0.41% 0.39% CAD -0.08% 0.05% 0.00% -0.25% 0.07% 0.15% 0.15% AUD -0.15% -0.02% -0.07% -0.31% -0.07% 0.12% 0.12% NZD -0.27% -0.12% -0.16% -0.41% -0.15% -0.12% -0.02% CHF -0.23% -0.12% -0.16% -0.39% -0.15% -0.12% 0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). The antipodean will likely face high volatility as the Australian Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled to be published on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to the Australian inflation data to get fresh cues on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook. In the March policy meeting, the RBA raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1% and stated that inflationary pressures were already high before the onset of the Middle East war, which resulted in a sharp increase in oil prices.The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to show that price pressures grew strongly by 1.4% against 0.6% in the last quarter of the previous year. On an annualized basis, the Australian CPI rose at a faster pace of 4.1% against the previous reading of 3.6%.Signs of further acceleration in inflationary pressures would boost the speculation of more interest rate hikes by the RBA this year.According to a Reuters report, currently there is an 82% chance that the RBA will hike interest rates again in its monetary policy meeting in May.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades close to its Monday closing price around 98.50. The US Dollar faced a sharp selling pressure on Monday after strong opening gains, as Iran’s readiness to end the war with the United States (US) diminished its safe-haven demand.On the domestic front, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. Economic Indicator Quarterly Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The quarterly CPI data series are calculated as the average of the three relevant monthly CPIs. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the same quarter a year earlier. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Wed Apr 29, 2026 01:30 Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 4.1% Previous: 3.6% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.

08:23 USD/INR extends rally as elevated oil prices keep pressuring Indian Rupee
The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens further after a brief pause against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 94.46 as elevated oil prices continue to hurt the Indian Rupee.

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The USD/INR pair jumps to near 94.46 as elevated oil prices continue to hurt the Indian Rupee.As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.6% higher to near $95.60 and is close to its two-week high of $97 posted on Thursday.Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.Oil prices have remained higher due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.According to a Reuters report, oil-linked flows and hedging-related US Dollar demand are key headwinds for the Indian RupeeHormuz reopening uncertainty lingers onThe uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Hormuz remains escalated, as Washington has not shown any signs of interest in proposals delivered by Iran to end the war. On late Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with the national security team, which calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent ceasefire. Leavitt didn’t reveal any information regarding the odds of whether it will be taken forward by Washington."I wouldn't say they're considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don't want to get ahead of, and you'll hear directly from the president, I'm sure, on this topic," Leavitt said.On Monday, US President Trump received another proposal from Iran, which he called “better” than the one, which it was expected to present in canceled peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, but "still not good enough”.FIIs offload stake in Indian stock market againIn the last six trading days, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 18,291.34 crore after a little buying in the April 15-17 period. FIIs appear to be dumping their stake in the Indian equity market due to elevated oil prices, which have raised concerns over India Inc. earning projections.Fed’s policy comes into spotlightThis week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% for the third time in a row. Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding the monetary policy outlook in the wake of the energy price shock amid the Hormuz closure.Technical Analysis: USD/INR inches closer to all-time high around 95.20USD/INR trades higher at around 94.46, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.53. The positioning above this rising EMA suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 indicates firm but not overstretched upside momentum.On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 93.53 stands as the first layer of dynamic support, and a daily close below this level would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader trend. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high around 95.20. The spot would enter uncharted territory if it manages a decisive break above 95.20.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

08:21 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Gains ground above 1.3600, while bearish technical bias persists
The USD/CAD pair posts modest gains near 1.3635 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

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Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/CAD keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair is sliding within the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 36 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than a confirmed oversold washout.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA around 1.3760, closely followed by the Bollinger 20-day SMA near 1.3767, where a recovery rally would likely face selling interest, with the upper Bollinger band far above near 1.3974 marking a more distant cap. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at roughly 1.3560 offers the next notable support, and a clear break beneath this floor would open the door to an extension of the current decline.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

08:12 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Eyes nine-day EMA support near 1.3500
GBP/USD steadies for the second successive day, trading around 1.3530 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bullish bias as the pair moves sideways within the ascending channel pattern.

08:04 NZD/USD slips to 0.5900 as US-Iran tensions support USD; focus remains on FOMC meeting
The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its strong gains registered over the past two days and attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD edges lower on Tuesday as US-Iran stalemate drives safe-haven flows towards the USD.Bets for at least one Fed rate cut in 2026 might cap the USD ahead of the FOMC policy meeting.Hawkish RBNZ expectations could lend support to the NZD and further limit losses for spot prices.The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its strong gains registered over the past two days and attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices move away from the 0.5920-0.5925 horizontal resistance, touched the previous day, though the downside remains cushioned amid mixed cues. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some safe-haven flows amid the uncertainty surrounding the second round of US-Iran peace talks and turns out to be a key factor undermining the NZD/USD pair. Hopes for diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war receded after US President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner's planned visit to Pakistan. Moreover, Trump is reportedly dissatisfied with Iran's new proposal on resolving the war, which would set ‌aside discussion of Iran's nuclear program.Furthermore, the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keeps geopolitical risks in play and assists the USD to regain some positive traction. In fact, traffic through the strategic waterway remains blocked due to Iran's restrictions on movements and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting this Tuesday.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its decision on Wednesday amid bets for at least one rate cut in 2026. In the absence of new economic projections, the key focus will be on the post-meeting press conference. Comments from the outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be scrutinized for cues about the future policy path, which will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the NZD/USD pair.In the meantime, bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint amid persistent sticky inflation could support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). This, along with the recent rebound from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), could help limit further losses for the NZD/USD pair. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:25 US Dollar Index holds gains near 98.50 due to safe-haven demand
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after two days of losses and trading around 98.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US Dollar Index gains on safe-haven demand as stalled US–Iran peace talks dampen risk sentiment.Tehran signaled that it could end hostilities under conditions, but Trump rejected the proposal.The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after two days of losses and trading around 98.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.The Greenback receives support from safe-haven demand amid stalled US-Iran peace talks. However, Iran offered to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the country and ends the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, per Bloomberg.US President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to rule out any deal that excludes Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian sources added that Tehran avoided addressing its nuclear program until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hold rates steady at Wednesday’s April meeting, which could be Jerome Powell’s final one as chair. The Fed is likely to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, marking a third straight hold. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh has stressed policy independence, even as markets price in a more aggressive rate-cutting path ahead.The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the United States (US) will place sanctions on anyone conducting business with sanctioned Iranian airlines as commercial flights resume from Tehran. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

07:25 USD/CHF gathers strength above 0.7850 as Fed rate decision looms
The USD/CHF pair gathers strength near 0.7865 during the early European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) due to the stalled US-Iran ceasefire and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Fed interest rate decision will take center stage on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. SNB’s Schlegel reaffirmed that the central bank is open to policy adjustments and FX interventions to curb excessive Swiss Franc strength.The USD/CHF pair gathers strength near 0.7865 during the early European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) due to the stalled US-Iran ceasefire and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders brace for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. Plans for a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran stalled again after US President Donald Trump had cancelled plans to send a team to Pakistan for negotiations with their Iranian counterparts.On Monday, Iran offered to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the country and ends the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that it remains unclear if Trump will entertain the offer to end the two-month-old war, as his bottom-line demands remain the same.The US central bank is likely to keep the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% on Wednesday. This may be Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair before his term expires on May 15.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept the policy rate at 0%. It aims to maintain this level to make the CHF less attractive to foreign investors. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel reaffirmed at the April meeting that the bank is highly willing to intervene in foreign exchange (FX) markets by buying foreign currencies to weaken the CHF and protect price stability. He added that the current policy remains expansionary to support economic activity amidst "profound uncertainty." Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:24 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700 as USD bulls seem hesitant ahead of FOMC meeting
The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to extend the previous day's retracement slide from levels just above mid-1.1700s.

06:36 Gold struggles below $4,700 as US-Iran tensions support USD ahead of FOMC meeting
Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias below the $4,700 mark for the second consecutive day and slides back closer to last week's swing low during the Asian session on Tuesday.

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The uncertainty over the second round of US-Iran peace talks assists the US Dollar (USD) in attracting some buyers, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the commodity. However, expectations for a less hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) could limit losses for the non-yielding bullion ahead of the key central bank event risk.Hopes for diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war receded after US President Donald Trump canceled his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner's planned visit to Pakistan. Meanwhile, Iran gave the US a new proposal that set ‌aside discussion on the country's nuclear program until the war ends and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved. Trump, however, is reportedly dissatisfied with the proposal as it does not adequately address nuclear issues. This, along with a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, keeps geopolitical risks in play and underpins the USD's reserve currency status, weighing on Gold prices.The upside for the USD, however, seems capped on the back of a repricing of a potential interest rate cut by the US central bank. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders see a roughly 35% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by the end of this year. This might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and limit the downside for Gold ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting this Tuesday. The focus, however, will be on the post-meeting press conference, where comments from the outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be scrutinized for cues about the future policy path.Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, however, seems tilted in favor of the XAU/USD bears and backs the case for an eventual breakdown through a short-term trading range held since the early part of this month.XAU/USD 4-hour chartGold bears await a breakdown through trading range support near $4,655Against the backdrop of recent failures to find acceptance above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, a convincing break below the trading range support near the $4,655 area will reaffirm the negative outlook. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the midline near 41, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is negative with the MACD line under its signal. This suggests that downside momentum is still present, even if not aggressively so.In the meantime, initial resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at $4,723.13, and bulls would need to reclaim and hold above this barrier to alleviate the current pressure and open the way for a more sustained rebound. Furthermore, traders are likely to watch for fresh basing patterns or a turn higher in RSI and MACD before anticipating a durable floor.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:35 GBP/JPY slides to 215.25 after BoJ's hawkish pause; downside seems limited
The GBP/JPY cross attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to its highest level since January 2008, just above the 216.00 mark touched the previous day.

06:34 EUR/JPY slips below 186.50 following BoJ policy decision
EUR/JPY remains subdued after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds losses following the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision.

06:25 AUD/JPY holds losses below 114.50 as BoJ keeps rate steady at 0.75%
The AUD/JPY cross declines to near 114.30 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision.

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BoJ kept the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April policy meeting on Tuesday. The Australian March CPI inflation report will be the highlight later on Wednesday. The AUD/JPY cross declines to near 114.30 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision. Traders will closely monitor Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference for any hints about the next move.As widely expected, the BoJ decided to hold the short-term interest rate steady at 0.75% after concluding its two-day monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday. According to the BoJ’s policy statement, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in accordance with developments in the economy, prices, and financial markets. It said wages and prices may face upward pressure more than what the output gap suggests. The BoJ will scrutinize the timing and pace of policy adjustment with a close eye on economic and price impact from Middle East war developments. The attention will shift to the BoJ’s Governor Kazuo Ueda press conference for more clues about the interest rate path in Japan. Any hawkish comments from policymakers could lift the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross.On the Aussie front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) for a third consecutive time at its next meeting on May 5, 2026. Markets are pricing in a 74% chance of another 25-basis-point increase to 4.35% in the May policy meeting, according to Reuters. Traders will take more cues from the Australian March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday for fresh impetus. The headline CPI is projected to show a rise of 4.7% YoY in March, compared to 3.7% in February. Any signs of hotter inflation in Australia could lift the Aussie against the JPY. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

06:14 Japanese Yen gains against its peers after BoJ holds interest rates steady at 0.75%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts bids against its major currency peers, with the USD/JPY pair sliding to near 159.25, after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement. The BoJ has left interest rates unchanged at 0.75% for the third meeting in a row.

06:02 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $74.50 on war driven inflation
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls around 1.5%, trading around $74.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The non-yielding metal declines as the US–Iran conflict fuels an energy-driven inflation shock, raising expectations of prolonged or tighter central banks’ policy.

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The non-yielding metal declines as the US–Iran conflict fuels an energy-driven inflation shock, raising expectations of prolonged or tighter central banks’ policy.However, markets weigh prospects of a lasting ceasefire and a potential reopening after Iran’s fresh proposal to the United States (US). Tehran reportedly signaled via Pakistan that hostilities could end if Washington lifts its naval blockade, revises transit rules through Hormuz, and guarantees against future military action.On the contrary, a US official said on Monday that President Donald Trump is dissatisfied with Iran’s proposal. Iranian sources added that Tehran avoided addressing its nuclear program until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.Traders are also looking ahead to policy decisions from key central banks this week, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming April policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. This would mark the third consecutive hold.The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates at 0.75% later in the day amid economic concerns from the US–Iran war, while the European Central Bank is also likely to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

05:08 WTI rises to near $95.50 as Strait of Hormuz remains shut
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $95.20 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices rise as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, tightening Middle East energy supplies.

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Crude oil prices rise as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, tightening Middle East energy supplies.However, Oil gains may be capped as markets weigh prospects of a lasting ceasefire and a potential reopening after Iran’s fresh proposal to the United States (US). Tehran reportedly signaled via Pakistan that hostilities could end if Washington lifts its naval blockade, revises transit rules through Hormuz, and guarantees against future military action.A US official said on Monday that President Donald Trump is dissatisfied with Iran’s proposal. Iranian sources added that Tehran avoided addressing its nuclear program until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.Now in its ninth month, the conflict has pushed energy prices higher and disrupted major supply chains, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a potential supply shock alongside slowing demand risks.Trump’s stance leaves the conflict at an impasse, with Iran restricting flows through the Strait, handling roughly 20% of global oil and gas, and the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports.Reuters reported ship-tracking data showing major disruptions, with six Iranian tankers turning back due to the US blockade. However, an LNG tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) crossed the Strait of Hormuz and is reportedly nearing India, data showed Monday. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

04:46 Canadian Dollar dips vs USD; Oil strength to limit losses and cap USD/CAD
The USD/CAD pair reverses a modest Asian session dip on Tuesday and looks to build on the previous day's modest rebound from sub-1.3600 levels, or the lowest since March 12.

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Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3630 region, though the upside potential seems limited amid a combination of diverging forces.Mixed signals over US-Iran peace talks assist the US Dollar (USD) to attract some safe-haven flows and turn out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. In fact, Iran reportedly gave the ‌US a new proposal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a ‌later stage. However, the Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump was skeptical about Iran not dealing in good faith or being open to meeting his key demand of ending nuclear enrichment.Meanwhile, continued disruptions to shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz remain supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, which underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and keeps a lid on the USD/CAD pair. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and might opt to move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key central bank event risks. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, and will be followed by the outcome of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC meeting.Investors will look for fresh cues about the future policy outlook amid expectations that the war-driven surge in energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures. This, in turn, will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair. The mixed fundamental backdrop, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the pair's recent fall, witnessed since the beginning of this month, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful recovery in the near term. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

04:34 Pound Sterling softens as markets await Fed and BoE rate decisions
The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3525 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD drifts lower to near 1.3525 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its April meeting on Wednesday.The BoE is likely to keep rates on hold on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3525 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week. The Fed is likely to keep the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, where it has sat since January. Deutsche Bank analysts noted a repricing of Fed policy toward a more hawkish stance, driven by persistent oil-related inflation. Traders will closely watch Jerome Powell’s press conference after the meeting for fresh impetus. Any hawkish comments from Fed officials could provide some support to the Greenback and create a headwind for the major pair. Markets expect the UK central bank to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, and traders will be watching for any signs ‌it is moving towards raising rates. Analysts see the UK economy as particularly vulnerable to the rise in energy prices caused by the war due to the country's heavy use of natural gas."Our baseline forecast assumes Bank Rate will remain on hold for the rest of the year," said Edward Allenby, senior UK economist at Oxford Economics. "The committee will have more information about how the energy shock is feeding through to the economy by the end-July meeting,” Allenby added. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8589 vs. 6.8579 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.8589 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8579 and 6.8282 Reuters estimate.

04:09 Japanese Yen extends the range play against USD; looks to BoJ for fresh impetus
The USD/JPY pair is seen consolidating in a narrow band around mid-159.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday as traders opt to wait for the crucial Bank of Japan (BoJ) before placing fresh directional bets.

04:05 Australian Dollar gains on RBA rate hike likelihood
AUD/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.7190 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair holds gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support, rising expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate hikes.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD holds gains as AUD is supported by rising RBA rate hike expectations.As of April 24, ASX May 2026 futures at 95.745 imply 74% odds of a 4.35% RBA hike.The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s April policy meeting.AUD/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.7190 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair holds gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support, rising expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate hikes.Australia’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be eyed on Wednesday, with headline annual inflation expected to rise 4.7%, well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range. Any upside surprise could reinforce expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the central bank’s May 5 meeting.As of April 24, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures May 2026 contract was trading at 95.745, implying a 74% probability of a rate increase to 4.35% at the upcoming RBA Board meeting.However, the potential upside of the AUD/USD pair might be limited as market sentiment remains fragile due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. However, Iran offered to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the country and ends the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, per Bloomberg. US President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to rule out any deal that excludes Iran’s nuclear program.The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming April policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. This would mark the third consecutive hold. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:50 Japan’s Katayama: Economy rebounding moderately, outlook calls for caution
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the economy is rebounding moderately with sustained wage growth momentum, but the outlook calls for caution.

03:32 EUR/USD edges higher above 1.1700 as Fed and ECB decisions loom amid US-Iran standoff
The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains around 1.1725 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. However, the potential upside might be limited as market sentiment remains fragile due to stalled US-Iran peace talks.

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Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade and the war ends. Traders brace for the Fed and ECB rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains around 1.1725 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. However, the potential upside might be limited as market sentiment remains fragile due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. Markets might turn cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions later this week. Iran offered to end its closure of the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the country and ends the war in a proposal that would postpone discussions on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, per Bloomberg. However, US President Donald Trump seems unlikely to accept the offer, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to rule out any deal that excludes Iran’s nuclear program. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the major pair. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming April policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. This would mark the third consecutive hold. Traders await Jerome Powell’s press conference after the policy meeting for fresh impetus. If Powell adopts a higher-for-longer stance or signals that rate hikes are back on the table, this could underpin the Greenback in the near term. Across the pond, economists anticipate the ECB not making any moves at its meeting on Thursday and keeping its benchmark deposit rate at 2.0%, where it has been since June last year. Policymakers could adopt a wait-and-see approach amid high economic uncertainty caused by conflict in the Middle East. ECB official Martins Kazaks said last week that "we still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view.” Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:52 United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) came in at 1% below forecasts (1.5%) in April
United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) came in at 1% below forecasts (1.5%) in April

02:47 US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Working with Iranian airlines risks sanctions
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the United States (US) will place sanctions on anyone conducting business with sanctioned Iranian airlines as commercial flights resume from Tehran, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

02:42 Asian FX: Oil shock and AI cushion – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim argue that the war in Iran has delivered a stagflationary shock to Asia, pushing inflation forecasts higher while leaving growth risks skewed to the downside.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim argue that the war in Iran has delivered a stagflationary shock to Asia, pushing inflation forecasts higher while leaving growth risks skewed to the downside. They see Brent averaging around USD110 before easing to USD80, expect most Asian central banks to stay on hold, and note Asian currencies have weakened versus the Dollar.War-driven stagflation and FX pressure"The war in Iran has delivered a stagflationary shock to Asia, the region most exposed to the Strait of Hormuz closure. The inflation forecasts are revised up across the board while growth risks are skewed to the downside, most acutely for the Philippines and Thailand. The AI-investment boom is partly cushioning the blow for the major electronics exporters, though the sector also has direct Gulf exposure via helium and specialty gases.""Most Asian central banks are likely to stay on hold, caught between spiking inflation and fragile growth. The exceptions are Singapore and the Philippines which have already tightened policy. Asian currencies, down around 2.2% against the USD since end-February, are absorbing the shock for now, but depreciation pressure remains.""For Asian GDP growth, most forecasts are unchanged for now but the risks are tilted to the downside, particularly if the war drags on and oil prices remain elevated. Our base case is that Brent oil prices will average around USD110 to May and settle around USD80 in H2 2026. We kept China’s growth forecast unchanged at 4.0% as it was already below the market consensus.""Our base case assumes the conflict de-escalates by end-May and passage through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes progressively in H2. Brent oil is forecast to settle around USD80 in H2. Under this scenario, central banks can treat the inflation spike as transitory. A prolonged closure materially changes the calculus.""The oil shock has led to a broad upward revision in the inflation forecasts for Asian economies. The hit to growth varies across Asia, with the Philippines and Thailand the most vulnerable. The electronics exporters are better placed to absorb the shock, underpinned by the AI-investment cycle."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

02:40 GBP/USD treads water ahead of Fed and BoE rate double-header
GBP/USD ended Monday largely unchanged from Friday's closing bids close to 1.3535, with the pair drifting in a tight range through the European and US sessions.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD settled Monday flat near Friday's close, with the central bank double-header keeping price tied near 1.3540.The Fed is set to hold at 3.50% to 3.75% Wednesday in Powell's final meeting before his May 15 chair term ends.The BoE meets Thursday with all 62 economists in a Reuters poll seeing a hold at 3.75%, though hike risks have crept in.GBP/USD ended Monday largely unchanged from Friday's closing bids close to 1.3535, with the pair drifting in a tight range through the European and US sessions. Price tagged a session high near 1.3575 in early dealing before fading back to the 1.3535 area, where small-bodied candles and overlapping bodies pointed to indecision. The pair is consolidating near the upper end of an April recovery that began from the 1.3160 area, with markets reluctant to commit ahead of this week's central bank double-header.The Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) both deliver rate decisions this week, a back-to-back setup that effectively sets the tone for the pair through May. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday in Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting before his term expires May 15. April brings no Summary of Economic Projections, leaving the statement and press conference to do the work amid March headline inflation at a two-year high of 3.3% and Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised to just 0.5%. The Senate Banking Committee is also scheduled to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Powell's successor on Wednesday, layering leadership-transition risk on top of the policy event. Thursday's advance Q1 GDP read (consensus 2.2%), Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print (forecast 3.2% YoY), and Friday's ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) round out a packed US data calendar.On the Pound Sterling side, the BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets Thursday with all 62 economists in a Reuters poll calling for a hold at 3.75% after March's unanimous vote to keep rates steady. The picture has shifted notably since the Iran conflict reignited inflation pressures, with markets now split between a hold and a hike rather than the two cuts priced before the war. Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that the world is facing "a very big energy shock" but signalled the BoE will not rush to act, while previous Bank staff projections pointed to UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation drifting back toward the 2.0% target through Q2. The accompanying Monetary Policy Report, MPC vote split (consensus 8 hold, 1 hike), and Bailey's 11:30 GMT press conference Thursday will carry the message, with Chief Economist Huw Pill's Friday speech the week's closing UK catalyst against a still-fragile US-Iran ceasefire backdrop.GBP/USD 15-minute chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:30 Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in March
Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in March

02:30 Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets expectations (1.18) in March
Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets expectations (1.18) in March

02:24 US President Donald Trump discusses new Iran’s Hormuz Strait proposal with top aides
US President Donald Trump and his national security team discussed Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, Reuters reported on Monday.

02:12 Gold tumbles below $4,700, Iran’s Hormuz Strait proposal and Fed rate decision in focus
Gold price (XAU/USD) slumps to near $4,685 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Markets turn to "wait-and-see" mode ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and shifting developments in the Middle East conflict.

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Fed is likely to hold rates steady at its April meeting on Wednesday. Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with top aides. Gold price (XAU/USD) slumps to near $4,685 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Markets turn to "wait-and-see" mode ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and shifting developments in the Middle East conflict.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, where it has been since December. Traders will closely monitor Jerome Powell’s press conference after the policy meeting, as it might offer some hints about potential rate hikes later this year. Any hawkish remarks from Fed officials could lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. The question of whether Powell will continue to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors even if Warsh is confirmed in time to run the next policy meeting in June also could be addressed.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have boosted crude oil prices, which have fueled inflation fears and raised the bar for cutting rates. Gold is often used amid geopolitical uncertainty but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.CNBC reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump and his national security team discussed Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade and the war ends. The proposal would postpone negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions for a later date. Nonetheless, it remains unclear if Trump will entertain the offer to end the two-month-old war. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

02:05 Singapore: Electronics strength offsets petrochemical drag – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Jester Koh highlights that Singapore’s industrial production rose strongly in March, lifting estimated 1Q26 GDP growth.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Jester Koh highlights that Singapore’s industrial production rose strongly in March, lifting estimated 1Q26 GDP growth. Koh stresses that robust electronics and semiconductor output, supported by AI-related demand, is cushioning weakness in chemicals, especially petroleum and petrochemicals, where feedstock disruptions and regional refinery run cuts point to intensifying headwinds in coming months.Electronics resilience versus petrochemical weakness"Singapore’s industrial production (IP) strengthened 4.7% m/m sa and 10.1% y/y in Mar (Feb: −1.2% m/m sa and 3.3% y/y), with 1Q26 manufacturing growth coming in at a strong 7.9% y/y, above the 5.0% y/y posted in the advance estimates (AE). Assuming construction and services activity remained unchanged from the AE, this implies a likely upward revision to 1Q26 GDP growth to around 5.2% y/y, from 4.6% in the AE.""On a m/m sa basis, the strong outturn was led by a 5.7% m/m sa increase in electronics (Feb: 5.1%) and a 21.8% m/m sa jump in precision engineering (Feb:-13.3%), with the former led by semiconductor segments on the back of robust AI-related demand while the latter reflected higher output of optical instruments, electronic connectors, metal precision components, etc while machinery and systems saw higher production of semiconductor equipment.""The most striking observation in the Mar IP release was the -18.5% m/m sa plunge in chemicals (Feb: -1.8%), led by petrol (Mar: -13.4%, Feb: -12.5%) and petrochemicals (Mar: -23.9%, Feb: -8.1%) with the EDB release attributing it to “disruptions in feedstock supply”, while news sources have already reported a growing number of refineries and petrochemical companies in Asia cutting runs and some have even declared force majeure""Key Takeaway from Mar IP: Headwinds in the petrochemicals segment could intensify in the months ahead as refineries draw down their limited feedstock inventories. Nevertheless, overall IP could continue to hold up, cushioned by strong electronics and semiconductor output amid AI-related tailwinds."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

02:00 Bank of Japan expected to hold rates amid Iran war-driven inflation fears
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, at around 3:00 GMT. The BoJ is widely expected to deliver a hawkish hold, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% while also hinting at a willingness to hike rates.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold, but a hike is not off the table.Uncertainty spurring from the Middle East war will take its toll on the decision. Macro fundamentals back the case for additional rate hikes in Japan.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, at around 3:00 GMT. The BoJ is widely expected to deliver a hawkish hold, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% while also hinting at a willingness to hike rates. The latest change in interest rates took place in December, when BoJ officials hiked by 25 basis points (bps)Japanese policymakers are between a rock and a hard place: The Middle East war is a global source of uncertainty, while the local macro puts pressure on policymakers to act promptly. Hotter-than-expected inflation and a tightening labor market hint at faster interest rate hikes, which run counter to the BoJ officials' views. In the meantime, the Middle East war continues. Hopes for a quick resolution fade as time goes by, with the war about to turn two months old. What to expect from the BoJ interest rate decision?According to the latest available data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% YoY in March, up from 1.3% in February and above the 1.4% anticipated by market players. Core annual inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 1.8%, up from the expected 1.5%. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate stood at 2.6% in February.If the BoJ could base monetary policy solely on these data, policymakers should pull the trigger in this meeting. However, the ongoing crisis in the Middle East paints a different picture. Rising Oil prices and persistent supply disruptions are expected to have a profound and prolonged impact on inflation worldwide. Japan is no exception. That opens the door for a surprise interest rate hike, although we are talking about Japan, and surprises are not usually in their script. Policymakers are well aware of the situation. In a press conference in Washington following the 20-G meeting, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that higher Oil prices “pose both upside risks to prices and downside risks to the economy, making policy responses difficult.” Ueda added: “Developments in the Middle East will be a crucial factor (for the BoJ's policy decision), but the outlook remains quite uncertain." Finally, he repeated the central bank’s commitment to price stability: “We will take the most appropriate response to achieve our 2% price target in a sustainable and stable way.”Governor Ueda will offer a press conference following the rate announcement, as usual. And while market participants anticipate a hawkish lean, the focus will be on how hawkish Japanese policymakers are willing to be in such an uncertain environment. How could the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision affect USD/JPY?Heading into the announcement, market participants expect the BoJ to hold its fire but deliver at least 50 bps rate hikes through 2026. The monetary policy Board is likely to keep rates on hold in its April meeting, not because it is the right decision, but to prevent a market shock. Policymakers are likely to anticipate additional rates coming, which will not be a big surprise. There are two quite hawkish scenarios. The first would be the BoJ actually triggering a rate hike. The second would be to directly pre-announce a rate hike at the next monetary policy meeting. Furthermore, if officials hint at worries about growth, something that so far they have avoided, the case for additional rate hikes will increase, and hence, boost demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The odds for any of those happening are quite limited. A dovish announcement is off the table, given the ongoing Middle East war.Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The USD/JPY pair trades in quite a limited range just below 160.00 since early April, driven by sentiment related to the Persian Gulf crisis. Speculative interest is looking at the US Dollar (USD) as the preferred safe-haven, with optimism boosting demand for the Greenback, and pessimism leading to USD sell-offs. The BoJ announcement, unless a surprise, is likely to have a limited impact on the pair.” Bednarik adds: “From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY pair is neutral. In the daily chart, the pair develops around a flat 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has been unable to find a way since early April. The 100- and 200-day SMAs keep heading higher, far below the current level, in line with the former dominant bullish trend. At the same time, the pair develops not far below its 2026 peak in the 160.40 region. Finally, technical indicators head marginally lower within neutral levels, far from providing a clear directional clue. The pair could fall with a hawkish announcement, with a break below 159.00 opening the door for a test of the 158.40 region. Below the latter, the slide could continue towards 157.90. As previously noted, 160.00 provides resistance in the case of sudden JPY weakness, with additional gains aiming to retest the year high.” Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Tue Apr 28, 2026 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 0.75% Previous: 0.75% Source: Bank of Japan Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

01:39 NZD/USD holds firm as softer USD and easing yields support the Kiwi
The NZD/USD pair is trading with a firmer tone on Tuesday, hovering near the 0.5910 region as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its recent strength.

The NZD/USD rebounds as the US Dollar weakens on lower Treasury yields and fading safe-haven demand.Geopolitical headlines remain mixed, with Middle East tensions still underpinning uncertainty, but no fresh escalation boosting risk sentiment.Markets reassess Fed outlook amid political pressure and shifting rate expectations, weighing on the Greenback and supporting higher-beta currencies.The NZD/USD pair is trading with a firmer tone on Tuesday, hovering near the 0.5910 region as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its recent strength. A modest pullback in United States (US) Treasury yields is undermining the Greenback, allowing the Kiwi to recover despite lingering geopolitical risks.Market sentiment remains fragile but has shown slight improvement as investors process recent developments in the Middle East. Headlines indicating that Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, has stated that the United States has requested negotiations, while Iran assesses the proposal, have alleviated immediate concerns about escalation. This has reduced safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD), providing support for risk-sensitive currencies.At the same time, expectations surrounding US monetary policy are evolving. Ongoing political pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, coupled with a more hawkish approach in forward guidance, has led markets to reevaluate the future path of interest rates. This shift is contributing to a softer tone for the USD, even as US economic data remains relatively resilient.NZD/USD Technical outlook
The 4-hour chart shows NZD/USD is neutral-to-bullish, as the pair holds above all its moving averages, with a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at around 0.5890. The 100 SMA crossed above the 200 SMA, both below the shorter one, providing additional support in case of further retracements. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, but lack directional momentum. Still, indicators suggest that sellers remain out of the picture. Additional gains could be expected on a run beyond 0.5930, the April monthly high.

01:12 CNY: Supported by exports and geopolitics – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that CNY is the only Asian currency stronger against the Dollar since late February, helped by robust exports and policy support.

Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that CNY is the only Asian currency stronger against the Dollar since late February, helped by robust exports and policy support. They see China tactically tolerating a firmer CNY ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and using it to bolster its image as a stabilizing force while steadily increasing CNY’s role in global trade settlement.China currency gains on policy support"All Asian currencies have depreciated against the USD since the end of February except for CNY. They are down on average by 2.2% vs USD while CNY is up 0.5%. Year-to-date (YTD), Asian currencies are down by around 1.1% and the top three performers are MYR (+2.6%), CNY (+2.3%), and SGD (+0.8%).""CNY is up 2.3% YTD. Structural headwinds such as overcapacity, ongoing property downturn, and fragile domestic sentiment persist. However, surprisingly robust export performance has provided a fundamental cushion for the CNY. Additionally, other factors are also supporting the currency, including:""Geopolitical Signaling: Strength may be a tactical move ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit, which is re-scheduled for 14-15 May. China appears to be tolerating a stronger CNY to distract attention from the large current account surplus, evidenced by the PBoC's consistently stronger mid-point fixing for CNY in the first 11 weeks of this year. Furthermore, China is attempting to position itself as a stable force amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.""Increased Settlement Share: Confidence is growing as more trade is settled in CNY. The latest global payment data from SWIFT noted that yuan’s share in global payments rose to 3.1% in March 2026 vs 2.7% at the end of 2025. While still trailing the USD (51.1%) and EUR (21.3%), SWIFT only captures part of the picture.""According to the PBoC, about one-third of China’s global merchandise trade goods was settled in CNY in 2025, up from 20% in 2022. Notably, nearly all of China-Russia trade is settled in CNY, and (contributed about 3-5pp to the trade settled in CNY). CNY's share of China's total cross-border settlements (covering trade, services and financial transactions) reached around 53% in March 2026;"(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

00:52 NZD/USD climbs above 0.59 as hot CPI fuels RBNZ hike bets ahead of Fed
NZD/USD posted limited gains of around 0.4% on Monday, settling close to 0.5905 but stalling just below the 0.5925 area that capped last week's recovery.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}New Zealand's hot Q1 CPI print lifted RBNZ May rate hike odds to roughly 60%, with a July move now fully priced.The Fed is set to hold at 3.50% to 3.75% Wednesday in Powell's final meeting before his May 15 chair term ends.Thursday's US Core PCE and Q1 GDP data round out the week, with ISM Manufacturing PMI and Iran headlines also in focus.NZD/USD posted limited gains of around 0.4% on Monday, settling close to 0.5905 but stalling just below the 0.5925 area that capped last week's recovery. The pair has been trapped in the upper bound of a near-term range, with momentum fading near the 0.5900 handle as buyers struggle to extend the rebound. Daily candles continue to print higher lows since the early-April trough at 0.5680, though the rally is showing signs of exhaustion at range highs from earlier this month.On the New Zealand Dollar side, last week's hotter-than-expected Q1 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print pushed market pricing for a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike at the May meeting from below 30% before the release to roughly 60%, with a July move now fully priced. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is feeding through to imported energy costs, and policymakers expect Q2 inflation pressures to intensify as the energy shock filters into the data. RBNZ Deputy Governor Karen Breman's Wednesday speech and Thursday's ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence reading are the domestic catalysts ahead of the May meeting, though the RBNZ has previously warned it would act decisively if inflation accelerates further.On the US Dollar side, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday in Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting before his term expires May 15. April brings no Summary of Economic Projections, leaving the statement and press conference to carry the message amid March headline inflation at a two-year high of 3.3% and Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised to just 0.5%. Thursday's advance Q1 GDP read (consensus 2.2%), Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print (forecast 3.2% YoY), and Friday's ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) round out a packed US data calendar. The Senate Banking Committee is also scheduled to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Powell's successor on Wednesday, with the still-fragile US-Iran ceasefire and ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade providing the backdrop for risk sentiment through the week.NZD/USD 15-minute chart New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

00:51 USD/JPY adrift ahead of BoJ and Fed twin policy week
USD/JPY ended Monday largely unchanged from Friday's closing bids near 159.40, oscillating in a tight 75-pip range between 159.10 and 159.85. The session produced a cluster of small-bodied candles reflecting indecision ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision.

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The session produced a cluster of small-bodied candles reflecting indecision ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision. Daily candles continue to consolidate just below the 160.00 handle that has capped rallies for the past three weeks.On the Japanese Yen side, the BoJ is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 0.75% on Tuesday after April hike pricing collapsed from 18 basis points at the start of the month to near zero in recent weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda will need to balance cautious commentary on Middle East risks with signals of continued tightening, and markets are now pricing a likely move to 1.00% at the June meeting. Updated forecasts in Tuesday's Outlook Report are expected to lift core inflation projections above the 2.0% target, while Thursday's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, with the ex-fresh food measure forecast at 1.8% YoY, is the next domestic catalyst. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated last week that authorities retain a "free hand" to intervene to stabilize Yen, with the 160.00 handle continuing to act as a soft intervention threshold.On the US Dollar side, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is similarly expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday in Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting before his term expires May 15. April carries no Summary of Economic Projections, leaving the statement and press conference to do the work amid March headline inflation at a two-year high of 3.3% and Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised to just 0.5%. Thursday's advance Q1 GDP read (consensus 2.2%) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print (forecast 3.2% YoY) are the next major signposts, with ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) closing the week on Friday. The Senate Banking Committee is also scheduled to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Powell's successor on Wednesday, adding leadership-transition risk to the Dollar's near-term outlook as the Iran ceasefire continues to wobble in the background.USD/JPY 15-minute chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

00:38 AUD/USD rallies toward 0.7200 as Aussie gains on easing war fears
The Australian Dollar soars some 0.53% on Monday, with the Greenback staying firm amid uncertainty regarding the outcome of the US-Iran conflict as Washington reviews Tehran’s last proposal to end the war. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.7185 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.7125.

00:31 USD/PHP: Political rift hits BSP – BNY
BNY's Bob Savage reports that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona faces a legal complaint tied to disclosures in an impeachment probe involving the vice president.

BNY's Bob Savage reports that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona faces a legal complaint tied to disclosures in an impeachment probe involving the vice president. He argues this heightens political and institutional tensions, raising concerns over governance standards and regulatory independence, with Philippine equities weaker and USD/PHP slightly higher in response.Governance concerns support currency risk premium"Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas governor Eli Remolona has been named in a legal complaint filed by the spouse of Vice President Sara Duterte. This intensifies existing political and institutional tensions over the disclosure of bank records during a congressional impeachment probe.""The complaint alleges violations of banking secrecy, anti-money laundering and data privacy laws, arguing that confidential financial information was released publicly without consent during a televised hearing.""Authorities maintain that the disclosures were made under subpoena as part of legislative scrutiny into the vice president’s finances, reflecting a deepening rift within the political leadership.""The case underscores escalating legal risks for institutions and could raise concerns over governance standards, regulatory independence and the handling of sensitive financial data in the Philippines."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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09:00 Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) rose from previous 1.8B to 9.3B in March Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) rose from previous 1.8B to 9.3B in March

08:40 Australian Dollar trades mixed in countdown to the Aussie CPI, Fed policy The Australian Dollar (AUD) demonstrated a mixed performance against its major currency peers, trading marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.7180 during the European trading session on Tuesday.

08:23 USD/INR extends rally as elevated oil prices keep pressuring Indian Rupee The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens further after a brief pause against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 94.46 as elevated oil prices continue to hurt the Indian Rupee.

08:04 NZD/USD slips to 0.5900 as US-Iran tensions support USD; focus remains on FOMC meeting The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its strong gains registered over the past two days and attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:25 US Dollar Index holds gains near 98.50 due to safe-haven demand The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after two days of losses and trading around 98.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

07:24 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700 as USD bulls seem hesitant ahead of FOMC meeting The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to extend the previous day's retracement slide from levels just above mid-1.1700s.

06:36 Gold struggles below $4,700 as US-Iran tensions support USD ahead of FOMC meeting Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias below the $4,700 mark for the second consecutive day and slides back closer to last week's swing low during the Asian session on Tuesday.

06:34 EUR/JPY slips below 186.50 following BoJ policy decision EUR/JPY remains subdued after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds losses following the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision.

06:25 AUD/JPY holds losses below 114.50 as BoJ keeps rate steady at 0.75% The AUD/JPY cross declines to near 114.30 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision.

04:46 Canadian Dollar dips vs USD; Oil strength to limit losses and cap USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair reverses a modest Asian session dip on Tuesday and looks to build on the previous day's modest rebound from sub-1.3600 levels, or the lowest since March 12.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8589 vs. 6.8579 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.8589 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8579 and 6.8282 Reuters estimate.

04:09 Japanese Yen extends the range play against USD; looks to BoJ for fresh impetus The USD/JPY pair is seen consolidating in a narrow band around mid-159.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday as traders opt to wait for the crucial Bank of Japan (BoJ) before placing fresh directional bets.

03:50 Japan’s Katayama: Economy rebounding moderately, outlook calls for caution Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the economy is rebounding moderately with sustained wage growth momentum, but the outlook calls for caution.

02:52 United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) came in at 1% below forecasts (1.5%) in April United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) came in at 1% below forecasts (1.5%) in April

02:42 Asian FX: Oil shock and AI cushion – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim argue that the war in Iran has delivered a stagflationary shock to Asia, pushing inflation forecasts higher while leaving growth risks skewed to the downside.

02:40 GBP/USD treads water ahead of Fed and BoE rate double-header GBP/USD ended Monday largely unchanged from Friday's closing bids close to 1.3535, with the pair drifting in a tight range through the European and US sessions.

02:30 Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in March Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.7%, above expectations (2.6%) in March

02:30 Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets expectations (1.18) in March Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets expectations (1.18) in March

02:24 US President Donald Trump discusses new Iran’s Hormuz Strait proposal with top aides US President Donald Trump and his national security team discussed Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, Reuters reported on Monday.

02:05 Singapore: Electronics strength offsets petrochemical drag – UOB United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Jester Koh highlights that Singapore’s industrial production rose strongly in March, lifting estimated 1Q26 GDP growth.

01:39 NZD/USD holds firm as softer USD and easing yields support the Kiwi The NZD/USD pair is trading with a firmer tone on Tuesday, hovering near the 0.5910 region as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to extend its recent strength.

01:12 CNY: Supported by exports and geopolitics – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that CNY is the only Asian currency stronger against the Dollar since late February, helped by robust exports and policy support.

00:52 NZD/USD climbs above 0.59 as hot CPI fuels RBNZ hike bets ahead of Fed NZD/USD posted limited gains of around 0.4% on Monday, settling close to 0.5905 but stalling just below the 0.5925 area that capped last week's recovery.

00:31 USD/PHP: Political rift hits BSP – BNY BNY's Bob Savage reports that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona faces a legal complaint tied to disclosures in an impeachment probe involving the vice president.

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