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14:41 Japanese Yen: Joint intervention supports yen outlook – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has strengthened as Japan and the US conducted joint intervention to counter recent volatility. He highlights planned use of the Federal Reserve’s FIMA Repo Facility, US euro-to-yen reallocations, and Japan’s sizeable FX reserves.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has strengthened as Japan and the US conducted joint intervention to counter recent volatility. He highlights planned use of the Federal Reserve’s FIMA Repo Facility, US euro-to-yen reallocations, and Japan’s sizeable FX reserves. Hardman also stresses more hawkish Bank of Japan guidance and lower Oil prices as reinforcing support for the Yen.Yen aided by policy and energy moves"The yen has continued to strengthen at the start of this week after Japanese Finance Minister Katayama confirmed overnight the Japan intervened alongside the US to support the yen on Friday. The statement justified the joint action to counter excessive volatility and disorderly movement in the yen in recent months, and emphasized that “we will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention”. It was the first joint intervention involving Japan and the US since 18th March 2011 when joint intervention was undertaken after the 11th March Tohoku earthquake and tsunami to weaken the yen.""At the same time, the statement from Finance Minister Katayama revealed that Japan also plans to utilize the Federal Reserve’s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility in the future. The facility enables Japan to access up to USD60 billion per day without selling Treasuries for up to seven days. The facility allows Japan to borrow US dollar temporarily by pledging Treasuries as collateral.""With support from the US, intervention to support the yen will be viewed as more credible and if it proves more effective it could then mean that less intervention is ultimately required requiring less Treasury sales.""Overall, the latest development give us more confidence in our forecasts that the yen is in the process of bottoming out. The threat of further joint intervention and a faster pace of BoJ hikes should provide more support for the yen, and discourage speculators from running elevated short yen positions.""The comments signal that the BoJ may hike rates as soon as the next policy meeting in line with our forecasts rather than wait until the end of this year."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

14:31 Australian Dollar comes under pressure as US Dollar regains ground
AUD/USD falls to around 0.7000 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.30% on the day, as a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) outweighs the support provided by Chinese economic data for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

14:26 Federal Reserve: Data driven rate path – HSBC
HSBC strategists note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) left policy rates unchanged in July, with markets now assigning a two-thirds probability to a September hike.

HSBC strategists note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) left policy rates unchanged in July, with markets now assigning a two-thirds probability to a September hike. They stress that Chair Warsh’s data-dependent stance puts upcoming United States (US) macro releases and inflation prints in focus, as labour market cooling and subdued core Consumer Price Index (CPI) could prompt investors to reassess the timing of any further rate increase.Fed pause keeps September hike in play"The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, as widely expected. Attention now shifts to September, with markets pricing in a two-thirds chance of a hike. With Chair Warsh unwilling to manage policy expectations and reiterating that the Fed is data dependent, upcoming macro releases take on added importance and could increase market volatility.""Following a strong spring, payroll growth has moderated, while household sentiment suggests a softer labour market than the headline 4.2% unemployment rate implies. Any further cooling over the summer could prompt investors to reassess whether a September hike should be pushed back.""The decision could go to the wire, with further CPI and payrolls releases landing shortly before the meeting. Unpredictable developments in the Middle East may also influence the outlook. Even if the Chair favoured using it, forward guidance could be a hostage to fortune at this point.""Inflation data will be equally pivotal: a second consecutive subdued core CPI reading would cast doubt on whether broad-based price pressures are taking hold, particularly as labour cost growth appears contained and the housing market remains subdued."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

14:09 WTI stays lower near $78.50 ahead of US-Iran peace talks 2.0
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 7.4% lower at around $78.50 during the European trading session on Monday. The Oil price holds onto its opening losses, driven by the announcement of a ceasefire 2.0 between the United States (US) and Iran.

13:58 Gold struggles to hold gains amid mixed US-Iran headlines, hawkish Fed
Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, although buyers lack conviction as markets weigh conflicting US-Iran headlines and look ahead to US employment data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.

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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,050, up 0.20% on the day, after reaching an intraday high of $4,084.US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he had called off a planned strike on Iran, with negotiations expected to begin on Monday. The announcement lifted hopes of a peace deal and sent Oil prices sharply lower, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down more than 7% at the time of writing.The pullback in Oil prices eases immediate inflation concerns and pulls US Treasury yields lower, offering support to Gold. However, supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz keep Oil prices above pre-war levels.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei also said Tehran is not currently holding talks with Washington, keeping traders sceptical about the chances of a deal and the full reopening of the Strait.As a result, broader inflation concerns remain alive, and traders still see a high likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year. New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday that “rate policy is still well positioned to reach 2% inflation,” adding that “if inflation is not on track to 2%, the Fed will intervene to restore price stability.”The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders see a 65% chance of a rate hike in September. These hawkish bets continue to cap Gold’s upside despite broad weakness in the US Dollar (USD), driven by intervention from Japanese authorities to support the Yen.On the US economic calendar, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is due later on Monday, followed by the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday, ADP Employment Change on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.Technical analysis: Neutral RSI points to consolidation above $4,000On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a capped tone as it trades below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and well under the 50-day and 100-day SMAs.This configuration suggests the broader trend is still under pressure, even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 has recovered toward neutral and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 27 hints at easing trend strength after the recent decline.On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,066, followed by a more significant barrier at the 50-day SMA around $4,175, with the 100-day SMA at $4,416 reinforcing the broader bearish cap. On the downside, initial support aligns with the horizontal level at $4,000, ahead of a deeper structural floor at $3,850, and a daily close below $4,000 would likely reopen the path toward the lower band of this support zone.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

13:27 Fed’s Williams: Affirms confidence for inflation to return to 2% target
The remarks from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President John Williams, in an interview with Reuters that took place on Friday and was released during the European trading session on Monday, signal that he was confident about inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target.

The remarks from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President John Williams, in an interview with Reuters that took place on Friday and was released during the European trading session on Monday, signal that he was confident about inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target. Williams keeps the option of monetary policy adjustment on the table to achieve the 2% inflation target.RemarksStill believes fed rate policy ‘well positioned’ to achieve 2% inflation.

If inflation not on track to 2%, fed will act to get price stability.

Strongly supported FOMC’s latest decision.

Fed is very committed to getting inflation back to 2%.

Remains optimistic inflation pressures will gradually ease.
Williams sticks to “well positioned” Fed stance as markets test hawkish resolveFed’s Williams delivers a moderately hawkish message, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score sitting just above the 5.8/10 historical average, underscoring continuity rather than escalation in policy tone. The assertion that Fed rate policy is “well positioned” to achieve 2% inflation, coupled with a clear willingness to act if inflation drifts off track, reinforces a steady-hawk stance even as Williams remains optimistic that price pressures will gradually ease and flags but downplays inflation risks from the Middle East war and AI-related volatility. Acknowledging market pricing as informative but not binding further signals that the Federal Reserve will not simply ratify current Dollar rate expectations.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 1.47 points to 146.76, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, while the latest remarks are still clearly in hawkish territory, the incremental tone versus the established baseline has softened slightly, aligning with a “steady but data-dependent” policy narrative rather than a fresh hawkish push.

13:00 New Zealand Dollar eases as markets focus on US-Iran talks
NZD/USD trades around 0.5870 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.11% on the day.

13:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to show strong factory activity in July
Investors are attentive to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, as it releases July’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is seen improving to 54 in July from 53.3 in June.The ISM Prices Paid component is expected to have eased for the third consecutive month. The US Dollar trades at seven-week lows against the Euro, weighed by a positive risk sentiment.Investors are attentive to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, as it releases July’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This is one of the most closely followed indicators of business activity in the US manufacturing sector, considered a key indicator for economic growth.The market consensus anticipates an improvement to 54 in the headline indicator, from the 53.3 reading seen in June. If these figures are confirmed, they would match May’s reading, which was the strongest performance of the last four years, in an index showing expansion at levels above 50 and contraction otherwise.Apart from that, the US ISM Prices Paid component is expected to have eased to 70.3, from 73 in June and 82.1 in May. This is the lowest inflation reading since the war between the US and Iran started, back in February, but still significantly above the 60 average in the six months preceding the war.What to expect from the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report?If the market consensus is met, it will confirm the resilience of the US manufacturing sector amid uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and high energy prices stemming from it.These figures are likely to revive the rhetoric of US economic exceptionalism and ease concerns about the slowdown of the second quarter’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released last week. The market, however, will be very attentive to the Employment sub-index for a more complete view.The US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index has been improving in the last two readings, but it has remained within contractionary levels for most of the last four years. In that sense, a strong PMI release, coupled with an expansion in employment and with inflation at relatively high levels, is likely to improve investors’ confidence about the US economy and strengthen the case for some Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening this year, providing some support to the US Dollar.The positive impact on the Greenback, however, is likely to be limited. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, is languishing at seven-week lows amid a mix of risk-appetite triggered by the pause in hostilities in Iran and the sharp USD/JPY reversal following an exceptional US-Japan coordinated FX intervention to shore up the Japanese Yen.
When will the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report be released, and how could it affect EUR/USD?The US ISM Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT on Monday.The Euro (EUR) consolidates gains on Monday, trading at the 1.1525 area against the US Dollar at the time of writing, standing at its highest levels since mid-June. In that sense, positive data might put a lid on Euro appreciation, but it is unlikely to reverse the current bullish trend unless the risk mood changes substantially
The technical picture shows a modest bullish near-term bias, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 64, showing a positive but not yet overbought momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory.Upside attempts have been capped at the 1.1550 area on Monday. Further up, the June 14 and 17 highs, around 1.1620, and the May 29 high, at 1.1685, are likely to test bulls. On the downside, previous resistance around 1.1475 (July 15, 16 highs) has now turned support. If that level gives up, the next targets are the July 29 lows around 1.1375 and the late June lows at 1.1325.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

12:54 Euro area: Services PMI and inflation risks – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the lack of further Fed tightening has eased global financial conditions and partially offset European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, but European inflation dynamics remain distinct from the U.S.

Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the lack of further Fed tightening has eased global financial conditions and partially offset European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, but European inflation dynamics remain distinct from the U.S. The report favors received positions in European rates, while warning that rising services PMIs, elevated input costs and margin pressure could undermine a sustainable demand recovery and pose stagflation risks for the Euro area.European PMIs and rate positioning"The lack of additional tightening by the Fed has led to hopes of easier financial conditions globally and helped offset some ECB tightening through the external channel. Falling prices for dollar-priced commodities will generate some negative pass-through on the margins, but until there is clear visibility over the conflict, rates markets are unlikely to remove the near 45bp currently priced in additional tightening by year end.""As long as this balance holds, we favor adding to received positions in European rates, which will also help alleviate financial conditions on the margins. We stress that the European inflation situation remains fundamentally different from that of the U.S., where there is a stronger demand case, led by investment growth.""Based on the Eurozone PMI details, the fundamentals behind services recovery don’t bode well for a sustainable demand lift. Softer headline prices have helped with the recovery, but the effect of price changes is overstated.""Even as the ceasefire was implemented, Services PMI input prices remained at their highest levels since early 2024. The spread between input and charged prices is now at its widest in nearly three years, pointing to significant margin pressure across the sector.""For a country with the worst real rates in emerging markets, by some distance, the outlook for the currency will deteriorate further."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

12:52 British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data
The British Pound (GBP) is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD eases to the 21.3450 area from seven-week highs just above 1.3500.The downwardly revised UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has added negative pressure on the PoundExperts at BBH foresee a dovish repricing of BoE's monetary policy weighing on the Pound in the mid-term.The British Pound (GBP) is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran.July’s UK S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has been revised down to a 51.2 reading in July from preliminary estimates of a 52.8 reading. The final figures highlight a moderate slowdown of the sector’s activity, from the 52.5 reading seen in June.Hopes of Iran peace talks have lifted market sentimentThe Pound, however, is drawing some support from a moderate risk-off mood as the US and Iran halted hostilities, and US President Donald Trump’s affirmed that a new round of negotiations will begin on Monday. The US Dollar is also struggling in the aftermath of an exceptional coordinated intervention between the US and Japan to shore up an ailing Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY dropped more than 3.5% on Thursday and Friday, and posted another spike on Monday, triggering speculation of another intervention. These sharp declines have reverberated in most US Dollar cross-rates, weighing the Greenback across the board.Looking forward, Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman observe “scope for a downward adjustment to UK (interest) rate expectations which is a headwind for GBP.” They note that “the swaps curve implies 50bps of tightening to 4.35% in the next twelve months,” but see room for that pricing to be revised lower. Aside from the Bank of England's rate decision, BBH also points out that “the BoE also flagged it may further reduce the pace at which it shrinks its bond holdings,” underscoring a more cautious approach to quantitative tightening. Economic Indicator S&P Global Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the UK’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Mon Aug 03, 2026 08:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.9 Consensus: 52.8 Previous: 52.8 Source: S&P Global

12:37 Gold: Explosive phase, muted correction – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Research analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu argue that Gold has been in an explosive price phase since August 2024, but recent moves suggest a muted correction.

Deutsche Bank Research analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu argue that Gold has been in an explosive price phase since August 2024, but recent moves suggest a muted correction. They highlight downside signals from long-term Gold-to-commodity ratios, yet note regression evidence of limited drawdowns and a fair value model pointing near USD 4,700/oz by year-end, slightly above their USD 4,600/oz Q4 2026 forecast.Explosive dynamics and fair value"A statistical measure indicates that the current episode of explosive gold price behaviour began from August 2024 and is ongoing. This provides a useful frame of reference for today’s gold market. The current episode is only one of five appearing in data from 1975 (after filtering out isolated 1-month readings as noise, and aggregating temporally linked observations).""First, we adjust gold-to-commodity relative price ratios for long term growth rates. Adjusted ratios indexed to a 1986 reference point imply downside for gold to USD 2,600/oz.""Second, regressing gold prices on the BSADF test statistic indicates that both gold’s upward extension and downward correction are muted in this episode. Gold may have bottomed in its correction around USD 3,900/oz instead of extending toward the regression-implied USD 3,700/oz.""Third, gold has closed the gap to fair value. Rolling back our model adjustments for excess official demand and real rate convexity, we would still see gold fair value as likely to register around USD 4,700/oz by year-end, above our USD 4,600/oz forecast for Q4’26. We maintain our forecast on this basis.""Altogether, we think it is appropriate to maintain our forecasts from the Commodities Outlook, discounting the substantial downside implied by commodity ratios and overweighting the fair value model which aligns with gold’s demonstrated sensitivities to financial market variables and DB research cross-asset views."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.38 per troy ounce, up 1.37% from the $57.59 it cost on Friday.

12:20 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles to extend opening gains amid hawkish Fed bets
Silver price (XAG/USD) opens strongly due to a sharp decline in oil prices, but struggles to extend gains beyond $58.68 during the day. At press time, the Silver price is up 1% to near $58.20.

12:16 Oil: prices slide on halted strikes – Commerzbank
Commerzbank strategists report that Brent Oil opened over 7% lower under USD84 into the Asian session after President Trump said the United States (US) would hold off on new strikes against Iran.

Commerzbank strategists report that Brent Oil opened over 7% lower under USD84 into the Asian session after President Trump said the United States (US) would hold off on new strikes against Iran. Despite OPEC+ approving a modest output increase for September, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping Persian Gulf export disruptions and inflation concerns in focus.Trump decision hits Brent sharply"The dominant story heading into the Asian open is that Brent oil prices have opened lower by over 7% to under USD84. This followed reports over the weekend that President Donald Trump said the US would hold off on new strikes against Iran. Iran and other Gulf nations indicated they are working toward a deal.""President Trump posted on social media that he had agreed to cancel the attack “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL”, adding “Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE”. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had reportedly urged Trump to refrain from further military action.""On the energy front, OPEC+ approved a further increase of 188k barrels a day to collective output targets for September on Sunday, completing the theoretical unwinding of the 1.65mn barrels a day in voluntary cuts made in April 2023.""The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, continuing to disrupt Persian Gulf oil exports and stoking inflation concerns across Asia and Africa."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

12:12 Swiss Franc weakens following soft inflation, manufacturing data
USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8090 during the European hours on Monday. The pair remains on a stronger footing as the Swiss Franc (CHF) holds onto losses following the release of soft domestic inflation and manufacturing data.

July Swiss CPI rose just 0.4% year-on-year, marking the slowest price growth since March.Switzerland's SVME Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 in July, hitting a six-month low.USD upside remains capped by joint US-Japan intervention and easing Middle East geopolitical tension.USD/CHF extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8090 during the European hours on Monday. The pair remains on a stronger footing as the Swiss Franc (CHF) holds onto losses following the release of soft domestic inflation and manufacturing data.In July, Swiss consumer prices rose by just 0.4% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace of growth since March and easing from a 0.5% gain in June. Annual core inflation, which excludes volatile items like unprocessed food and energy, held steady at 0.3%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices slipped by 0.1%, the first contraction in six months after a flat reading in June.Franc outlook softens as Nomura sees Swiss inflation undershooting SNBStrategists at Nomura highlight that “car fuel prices contributed to the slowdown in Swiss inflation in July,” reinforcing the recent disinflationary trend. Against this backdrop, they add that “we expect inflation in Q3 to print below the SNB’s forecast,” suggesting a softer fundamental environment for the Swiss Franc.Compounding the Franc's weakness, Switzerland’s SVME Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 in July from 54.3 in June, missing market expectations of 55.0 and recording its lowest level since February.However, the upside for the USD/CHF pair may be constrained by broad-based weakness in the US Dollar (USD) following official confirmation of joint foreign exchange interventions by Japan and the United States. Japanese authorities confirmed coordinated yen-buying operations, with Bank of Japan data revealing expenditures reaching up to $58.97 billion. Tokyo signaled a readiness to intervene further if necessary, emphasizing ongoing, close communication with US counterparts.Moreover, the Greenback faces challenges amid easing market risk aversion, driven by potential diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. Market sentiment brightened after US President Donald Trump announced a pause on planned military strikes. In a post on Truth Social, President Trump noted that Iran and regional partners had requested time to negotiate a deal aimed at fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing concerns over Iran's nuclear program.US data in focus as markets weigh Fed reaction and credibilityStrategists at BNY Mellon argue that the coming week will "test whether markets can keep looking through policy uncertainty while demanding firmer evidence from data and earnings," with U.S. nonfarm payrolls singled out as "the main event." They note that "the Fed’s reaction function is harder to read," leaving "its credibility tied to incoming data" as investors assess how labor-market prints and corporate results shape expectations for the policy path.

12:01 Japanese Yen: Intervention fears cap losses against US Dollar – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent joint intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the United States (US) Treasury to support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and its implications for USD/JPY.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses recent joint intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the United States (US) Treasury to support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and its implications for USD/JPY. Foley highlights use of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility, questions over Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes, and suggests the 200-day sma near USD/JPY158 may act as resistance, limiting further US Dollar (USD) gains.Joint support and policy uncertainty"The joint intervention between the MoF and the US Treasury that has played out in recent days is more like the action last seen during the Clinton Administration in 1998 when both authorities set out to support the JPY. One interesting question regarding the Treasury’s decision to act in recent days is ‘what is in it’ for the US? Another key question is whether the JPY can sustain its better tone.""The use of the FIMA by the MoF in its support of the JPY backed up by action from the Fed may have been a useful short-term solution for both the Japanese and US authorities. That said, FX intervention will only be successful in turning a currency pair if the fundamentals are also pushing in the same direction. Whether this is the case has yet to be established.""He stated that underlying inflation was at risk of rising above the BoJ’s 2% target and suggested that there was the possibility of speeding up the pace of hikes. That said, perhaps understandably, there was no clear commitment to do so, and this will have disappointed JPY bulls. Meanwhile, the market remains wary about the weight of government debt.""While we are optimistic regarding the changes to Japan’s economy in recent years, the market will likely have to become more confident that the BoJ can hasten the pace of rate hikes and see more reassurances on fiscal prudence for the JPY to recover significant ground. While more economic data and news of Takaichi’s fiscal credibility is awaited, for now fear of further intervention and a weaker USD will likely be sufficient to prevent USD/JPY from pushing much higher. The 200-day sma close to USD/JPY158 is likely to act as resistance."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

11:57 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Defends 200-day SMA below mid-109.00s after range breakdown
The AUD/JPY cross attracts heavy follow-through selling and touches its lowest level since late March, around the 109.40-109.35 region at the start of a new week.

11:54 Euro strengthens against Canadian Dollar despite mixed German data
EUR/CAD edges lower after opening with a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 1.6180 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding its ground as the Euro (EUR) remains resilient despite mixed economic data from Germany.

11:40 Swiss Franc: inflation undershoots SNB outlook – Nomura
Nomura strategists note that Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 0.4% year-on-year in July, helped by weaker car fuel prices and easing imported energy costs.

Nomura strategists note that Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 0.4% year-on-year in July, helped by weaker car fuel prices and easing imported energy costs. They expect Swiss inflation in Q3 to average 0.5% year-on-year, below the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0.7% forecast, implying a softer backdrop for the Swiss Franc (CHF).Q3 inflation seen below SNB path"Swiss CPI inflation slowed to 0.4% y-o-y in July (Nomura: 0.5%, consensus: 0.4%) from 0.5% y-o-y in June. Core inflation remained at 0.3% y-o-y (Nomura: 0.4%, consensus: 0.3%).""The CPI fell 0.1% m-o-m, below our expectation of no change. The main downside surprise to our forecast was transport, as prices declined 0.4% m-o-m vs. our expectation of a 0.6% rise.""Domestic prices increased 0.5% y-o-y, while imported product prices were unchanged from a year earlier as imported energy cost pressures have eased after adding to inflation in recent months due to the Iran war.""The SNB’s latest forecast is for inflation to average 0.7% y-o-y across Q3. Today’s data were below that, and while we expect inflation to accelerate through the quarter, we now forecast inflation to average 0.5% y-o-y for Q3, 0.2pp below the SNB’s forecast.""Car fuel prices contributed to the slowdown in Swiss inflation in July. We expect inflation in Q3 to print below the SNB’s forecast."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

11:33 Euro remains near seven-week highs after downwardly revised Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
The Euro (EUR) posts moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, trading at 1.1525 at the time of writing, but standing close to the seven-week highs, at 1.1556 hit earlier on the day.

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The Euro (EUR) posts moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, trading at 1.1525 at the time of writing, but standing close to the seven-week highs, at 1.1556 hit earlier on the day. Final Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures confirmed a moderate expansion of the sector's activity in July, while hopes of new peace talks between the US and Iran are providing additional support to the Euro. Eurozone’s final HCOB Manufacturing PMI has been revised down to 51.9 in July from previous estimations of 52.0. This is still a moderate improvement from June’s 51.4 reading and its best performance since April, which suggests that the region’s factory activity is showing resilience to the energy shock and the uncertainty from Iran’s war.Down to member Spain’s and Italy’s HCOB Manufacturing PMIs have shown moderate expansion in July, yet short of the levels anticipated by the market’s consensus. German Manufacturing PMI has shown a significant improvement, while French manufacturing activity contracted against expectations.Before that, German Retail Sales disappointed, showing a 1.1% fall in June, more than twice the 0.5% decline forecasted by market analysts, and it could have been much worse if it were not for the 2.1% rise in petrol station sales. These figures follow a 1.2% increase in May.Risk appetite, lower Oil prices are Euro-supportiveThe Euro is drawing some support from a moderate risk-on mood and lower Oil prices, as hostilities in the Middle East were halted and US President Donald Trump affirmed that negotiations with Tehran will begin on Monday. Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei, however, has denied any talks with the US regarding Hormuz, a vital sea corridor for global crude supplies.Analysts at ING argue that EUR/USD “should probably be doing better,” pointing to “decent Eurozone hard data last week, lower oil prices and lots of Dollar selling from Japan” as supportive factors. Looking forward, however, they doubt that “such news will have any lasting impact on the Euro.” The experts at ING assess that the bigger and more lasting driver of the EUR/USD trend is the Fed’s September decision, noting that this “remains unresolved,” and that US data this week will determine whether the pair ends the week “pressing 1.1615/20 resistance or trading back below 1.15.” Economic Indicator HCOB Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Mon Aug 03, 2026 08:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.9 Consensus: 52 Previous: 52 Source: S&P Global Economic Indicator HCOB Manufacturing PMI The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Germany’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. As Europe’s main manufacturing hub, German PMI data can also be a bellwether of the sector’s health in the broader continent. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR. Read more. Last release: Mon Aug 03, 2026 07:55 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 52.2 Consensus: 52.2 Previous: 52.2 Source: S&P Global

11:30 Euro: Fed uncertainty limits gains against US Dollar – ING
Chris Turner at ING argues EUR/USD should be performing better given solid Eurozone data, lower Oil prices and Japanese US Dollar (USD) selling, but notes possible US activity in EUR/JPY as a short-term drag.

Chris Turner at ING argues EUR/USD should be performing better given solid Eurozone data, lower Oil prices and Japanese US Dollar (USD) selling, but notes possible US activity in EUR/JPY as a short-term drag. He stresses that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September decision and this week’s US data will determine whether EUR/USD tests 1.1615/20 resistance or falls back below 1.15.Fed decision to steer trend"EUR/USD should probably be doing better, buoyed by decent eurozone hard data last week, lower oil prices and lots of dollar selling from Japan. The fact that it is not may partially be owed to the news that US authorities were checking rates in – and possibly selling – EUR/JPY on Friday. However, we doubt such news will have any lasting impact on the euro.""For reference, the US Treasury only has around $13bn of euro-denominated FX reserves to sell ($1.2bn in deposits, $11.7bn in securities), which is barely a drop in the ocean compared to Tokyo's activity in FX markets and the size of global FX flows.""We suspect the US Treasury might have sold EUR/JPY – in effect raising yen investments at the Exchange Stabilisation Fund at the expense of the euro – to avoid having to explain to the US public why it was selling the dollar.""The bigger and more lasting driver of the EUR/USD trend will be the Fed's September decision. That remains unresolved, and US data this week will have a big say if we end the week pressing 1.1615/20 resistance or trading back below 1.15."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

11:22 Equities: AI reassessment shakes global markets – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a sharp reassessment of the AI (Artificial intelligence) trade with semiconductor and Korean equities suffering steep monthly losses despite strong YTD gains. European stocks outperformed as sector rotation and solid Eurozone growth supported broader indices.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a sharp reassessment of the AI (Artificial intelligence) trade with semiconductor and Korean equities suffering steep monthly losses despite strong YTD gains. European stocks outperformed as sector rotation and solid Eurozone growth supported broader indices.AI trade drives sharp equity swings"A reassessment of the AI trade was the key theme in equities, with the Philly Semiconductor index (-20.6%) seeing its worst month since 2008 and the KOSPI slumping by -22.2% despite a late rebound, though both are still up over +50% YTD. European stocks outperformed and sectoral rotation meant that many broader indices are still within touching distance of record highs.""Equities saw a solid gain in aggregate, with the S&P 500 advancing +1.05% (+0.70% Friday). But the standout theme was continued volatility around the AI trade, with the Philly semiconductor index ending the week -4.30% lower despite a +8.19% spike on Thursday. The Mag-7 (+4.16%) had a strong but varied week, with Microsoft (+21.75%) and Amazon (+17.00%) surging after their earnings, but Apple (-7.24%) and Meta (-6.47%) losing ground after theirs.""Internationally, the volatility was most extreme for Korea’s KOSPI index, with a +17.91% surge on Friday still leaving the index -1.42% lower on the week after it plunged across Tuesday-Wednesday."A solid Eurozone Q2 real GDP print (+0.4% qoq) also helped, sending the DAX (+2.11%), CAC (+1.64%) and FTSE 100 (+1.23%) to strong advances, though the STOXX 600 (+0.73%) was weighed down by a -8.24% decline for ASML.""S&P (+0.61%), Nasdaq (+0.96%) and Stoxx (+0.93%) futures have also rallied this morning although the ongoing tech volatility is holding back the KOSPI (-4.92%) and the Nikkei (-0.93%). The Hang Seng is flat and mainland Chinese markets are down a few tenths of a percent.""Corporate earnings remain another major theme. In the US, reports are due from Palantir (today), SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Toyota (tomorrow), before attention shifts to Eli Lilly, Walt Disney and Uber (Wednesday). European highlights include Novo Nordisk and Siemens Energy (Wednesday), followed by Siemens and Rheinmetall (Thursday), while Japan’s reporting calendar includes SoftBank and Nintendo (Thursday)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

11:16 Dow Jones futures advance as oil prices fall on US-Iran diplomatic signals
Dow Jones futures gain 0.54% to trade around 52,920 during European trading hours on Monday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures rise 0.49% to trade near 7,550, while Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.64%, trading near 28,590.

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Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures rise 0.49% to trade near 7,550, while Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.64%, trading near 28,590.US stock futures rise as oil prices declined on easing supply risks, driven by prospective diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. Sentiment shifted after US President Donald Trump announced a pause on planned military strikes. In a post on Truth Social, President Trump stated that Iran and regional partners had requested time to negotiate a deal aimed at fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resolving concerns over Iran's nuclear program.However, financial markets maintained a cautious stance as Iranian officials quickly refuted Washington’s characterization of the situation. Reporting via Iran’s Mehr news agency, officials dismissed the claim that Tehran requested a pause as "nothing but a new lie". They reiterated that Iranian military forces remain on high alert and prepared for any scenario, leaving geopolitical uncertainty elevated across global markets.Meanwhile, investors await another wave of corporate earnings that could provide fresh clues on the strength of the economy and serve as new catalysts for the artificial intelligence trade. Major companies set to report this week include Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, and Walt Disney, among others, including tech firms such as Palantir and SpaceX. Traders will also monitor a packed schedule of labor market data, highlighted by Friday's closely watched monthly US jobs report.Ai volatility tempers broader US equity gainsStrategists at Deutsche Bank note that US equities posted "a solid gain in aggregate," with the S&P 500 advancing " +1.05% (+0.70% Friday)." However, they emphasise that the standout theme was "continued volatility around the AI trade," as the Philly semiconductor index "ended the week -4.30% lower despite a +8.19% spike on Thursday." The bank also highlights a mixed performance within the Mag-7, which were " +4.16%" on the week overall, with "Microsoft (+21.75%) and Amazon (+17.00%) surging after their earnings, but Apple (-7.24%) and Meta (-6.47%) losing ground after theirs."Barkin flags a close call on rates, keeping Dollar bulls cautiousBarkin’s speech scored 6.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the 5.4/10 historical average, signaling a slightly more impactful tone relative to the established baseline. The “close call” remark on whether rates are high enough, combined with uncertainty about joining recent hike dissents and skepticism on meaningful labor market strengthening, points to a nuanced stance that stops short of clearly endorsing further tightening. Comments on uneven price increases suggest persistent, but patchy, inflation pressures that may limit aggressive Dollar repricing in the near term.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.46 points to 148.24, indicating a mild pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This keeps the Fed narrative in hawkish territory, but the incremental softening versus prior readings may temper the upside for the Dollar as markets reassess the probability of additional rate hikes. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

11:08 Japanese Yen: Joint intervention reshapes FX dynamics – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister examines recent joint US–Japan intervention to support the Japanese Yen. He notes confirmation that US authorities helped Japan and that further actions are possible, but constrained by IMF rules.

Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister examines recent joint US–Japan intervention to support the Japanese Yen. He notes confirmation that US authorities helped Japan and that further actions are possible, but constrained by IMF rules. Pfister argues the Yen is heavily undervalued, explores motives linked to US Treasuries and JGBs, and warns markets to brace for additional interventions.US–Japan action and yen valuation"This morning, official confirmation finally arrived that the US had lent Japan a hand with its interventions to strengthen the yen for the first time in many years, something that had been clear since Friday at the latest. Officials have emphasised that they are ready to carry out further interventions, although Thursday's intervention alone is estimated to have been the largest single-day intervention to date.""The yen has been significantly undervalued for many years. According to OECD purchasing power parity, it is currently more than 60% undervalued against the US dollar. By way of comparison, the euro is undervalued by about 29%.""I suspect that the US was more concerned that US Treasuries might be sold off. Japan could have sold them to prop up the yen with the US dollars received, which would tie in with reports that Japan might make greater use of the Fed’s repo facility (i.e. deposit USTs there as collateral in exchange for cash).""However, if Japan intervenes again in the coming days, the Ministry of Finance will have effectively used up all its options until November in order to retain that status.""Until then, market participants should brace themselves for possible interventions later in today's trading session."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

11:02 Japanese Yen outperforms its peers amid speculation of fresh US-Japan intervention
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades sharply higher against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen trades higher against its peers amid fears that the US and Japan could intervene again.The US and Japan jointly intervened on Friday to prop up the Yen.Hawkish BoE prospects have diminished after last week's monetary policy announcement.The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades sharply higher against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday. The Japanese currency is up 0.6% at around 211.00 against the British Pound (GBP) even after giving back a majority of its early gains amid fears that the United States (US) and Japan could jointly intervene again to counter excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the Japanese Yen. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.02% 0.13% -0.44% 0.14% 0.06% 0.02% 0.11% EUR 0.02% 0.14% -0.47% 0.16% 0.06% 0.08% 0.09% GBP -0.13% -0.14% -0.59% -0.01% -0.08% -0.06% -0.03% JPY 0.44% 0.47% 0.59% 0.52% 0.42% 0.46% 0.44% CAD -0.14% -0.16% 0.01% -0.52% -0.09% -0.06% -0.08% AUD -0.06% -0.06% 0.08% -0.42% 0.09% 0.01% 0.06% NZD -0.02% -0.08% 0.06% -0.46% 0.06% -0.01% 0.04% CHF -0.11% -0.09% 0.03% -0.44% 0.08% -0.06% -0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Earlier in the day, Japan's Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that Japan “won't hesitate to carry out more forex intervention with US”. She also confirmed a joint intervention with Washington on Friday. “Conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention with US on Friday,” Katayama said.On Sunday, US President Donald Trump also said Washington helped Japan prop up the JPY as a sign of friendship and to help the world economy, Reuters reported.Japan’s intervention to support the Yen was highly anticipated as the currency fell to its historic low at around 219.61 against the British Pound, and to near 164.00 against the US Dollar (USD) in July.Meanwhile, the British Pound trades lower against its peers as traders reconsider Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike expectations.BoE repricing seen as a headwind for PoundBrown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad argues that UK rate expectations may need to be marked lower, warning that “we see scope for a downward adjustment to UK rate expectations which is a headwind for GBP.” He notes that, despite this view, the current market still prices in further tightening, with “the swaps curve [implying] 50bps of tightening to 4.35% in the next twelve months.”The reasoning behind traders dialing back hawkish BoE expectations appears to be remarks from Governor Andrew Bailey in the press conference, which signaled that he didn't want the public to perceive the central bank as being biased in favor of rate hikes. "Please do not leave this room thinking that the Bank of England is edging towards a hike, because frankly, there’s nothing in what I said, and I think any of us have said, along those lines," Bailey said. Reuters report.In the policy meeting, the BoE decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected, and signaled that the central bank remains vigilant to second-round inflation effects. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 30, 2026 11:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 3.75% Consensus: 3.75% Previous: 3.75% Source: Bank of England

10:58 WTI trades below mid-$78.00s, down nearly 8% for the day amid Iran peace deal hopes
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to register any meaningful recovery and sticks to heavy intraday losses through the early part of the European session on Monday.

10:52 United States Dollar Index drops to near $77.50 due to Japanese FX interventions
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after three days of gains and trading around 101.50 during the Asian session on Tuesday.

Joint US-Japan Yen intervention spending reached $70-80 billion, pressuring the US Dollar against major peers.De-escalation signals between Washington and Tehran eased risk aversion, further dampening Greenback demand.Geopolitical uncertainty persists as Iranian officials denied requesting a pause, keeping financial markets on guard.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after three days of gains and trading around 101.50 during the Asian session on Tuesday.Dollar resilience persists despite joint US-Japan intervention and softer oilING’s Chris Turner argues that, “in theory, the Dollar should be broadly weaker today” after US and Japanese authorities confirmed joint FX intervention and with Japan “probably having sold $70-80 billion over the last three days.” He adds that lower oil prices ought also to be weighing on the Dollar, following reports from US President Donald Trump that “negotiation, rather than military firepower, is Washington's preferred method of engaging with Iran.” Yet, as Turner notes elsewhere, the Dollar’s broader performance remains surprisingly firm, underscoring how ongoing expectations for a Fed rate hike continue to offset what would normally be clear headwinds for the currency.Adding to the Dollar's downward pressure was a temporary relief in market risk aversion driven by prospective diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. Sentiment shifted after US President Donald Trump announced a pause on planned military strikes. In a post on Truth Social, President Trump stated that Iran and regional partners had requested time to negotiate a deal aimed at fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resolving concerns over Iran's nuclear program.However, financial markets maintained a cautious stance as Iranian officials quickly refuted Washington’s characterization of the situation. Reporting via Iran’s Mehr news agency, officials dismissed the claim that Tehran requested a pause as "nothing but a new lie". They reiterated that Iranian military forces remain on high alert and prepared for any scenario, leaving geopolitical uncertainty elevated across global markets.Barkin’s “close call” on rates keeps Fed tone cautiously hawkishFed’s Barkin delivered a cautiously hawkish message on Friday, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 6.2/10, modestly above the 5.4/10 historical average and signaling slightly stronger-than-usual concern on policy tightness. Calling it a “close call” on whether rates are high enough, expressing uncertainty about joining recent hike dissents, and skepticism that the labor market has strengthened all point meaningfully to a Fed still open to further tightening if inflation proves sticky. Barkin’s comment that price increases are moving unevenly through the economy underscores an environment where the Dollar remains supported by lingering policy-hike optionality, even if conviction is not absolute relative to the established baseline.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.46 points to 148.24, indicating a mild pullback in hawkish intensity despite remaining firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, while the overall Fed stance tracked by the FXS Speechtracker stays clearly hawkish, the latest communication reflects slightly less aggressive tightening bias, rather than a shift toward dovish territory.FXS Fed Sentiment Index: Daily Chart

10:46 British Pound: Rally may stall near 1.3555 against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights GBP/USD’s volatile session, with a spike from 1.3401 to 1.3481 and scope for further gains toward 1.3520, though overbought conditions may cap upside.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights GBP/USD’s volatile session, with a spike from 1.3401 to 1.3481 and scope for further gains toward 1.3520, though overbought conditions may cap upside. For the next 1–3 weeks, he sees strong momentum but questions whether the pair can break and hold above 1.3555, with support around 1.3385.Upside momentum tempered by overbought"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP traded in a relatively volatile manner last Friday, dropping to a low of 1.3401 before rising sharply to close at 1.3481 (+0.13%). While the sharp rise has scope to extend, overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 1.3520. The major resistance at 1.3555 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 1.3450; a breach of 1.3425 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.""1-3 WEEKS VIEW: GBP broke above the significant resistance at 1.3400 last week and soared to 1.3494. While strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the next significant resistance at 1.3555. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3385"(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

10:40 Iran's Baghaei: No talks with US currently regarding Hormuz
Remarks from Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, released during the European trading session on Monday, indicate that Tehran is in no discussions with the United States (US) regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for almost 20% of global energy supp

10:35 Oil: Red sea disruptions reshape global flows – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe how Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab security risks are forcing Oil cargoes onto longer, more complex routes.

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe how Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab security risks are forcing Oil cargoes onto longer, more complex routes. They highlight sharply reduced Red Sea flows, costly diversions via the Suez Canal, SUMED pipeline and Cape of Good Hope, and stress that the main challenge for Oil now lies in safe delivery rather than production.Red Sea risks lengthen oil routes"Like Odysseus navigating a succession of hazards on his voyage home, oil cargoes leaving the Red Sea are now being forced through an increasingly complex and dangerous journey. What was once a relatively direct route to Asia (pre-war) now involves detours, transhipments and multiple chokepoints, with each stage introducing new risks. The result is that a barrel of oil must travel farther and pass through more obstacles before reaching its destination.""The Bab al-Mandab has now emerged as another inevitable obstacle in this modern voyage. Based on the three confirmed incidents in the Red Sea last week and the composition of tankers that crossed successfully, the Houthis appear to be targeting Saudi-flagged vessels, while Chinese-flagged tankers carrying Saudi crude have continued to transit Bab al-Mandab. Total Red Sea oil flows have dropped by 4 mb/d since July 1, driven by a significant 3.7 mb/d decline in Bab al-Mandab traffic.""As an alternative to navigating through the Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi crude is first moved through Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to Yanbu, where it is loaded onto a VLCC. As fully laden VLCCs cannot transit the Suez Canal, the cargo is transferred into Egypt's SUMED pipeline, reloaded in the Mediterranean, and then shipped through Gibraltar and around the Cape of Good Hope. To avoid the missile and drone threat near the Bab al-Mandab and Gulf of Aden, vessels continue across the Indian Ocean and through the Strait of Malacca before reaching their destination.""Lastly, in Kazakhstan, disruptions to CPC exports, elevated refinery outages in Russia, and recurring attacks on shipping infrastructure demonstrate that the market remains exposed to further setbacks. Just as Odysseus faced a new challenge whenever one obstacle appeared behind him, the oil market has moved from one disruption to another without returning to normality. The central theme is clear: the greatest challenge is no longer producing the oil but safely delivering it through an increasingly hazardous journey."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

10:22 US Dollar Index: Fed hike expectations support DXY – ING
ING’s Chris Turner notes that despite sizeable joint FX intervention in USD/JPY and lower Oil prices, the US Dollar (USD) is not broadly weaker as markets still price a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike in September.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that despite sizeable joint FX intervention in USD/JPY and lower Oil prices, the US Dollar (USD) is not broadly weaker as markets still price a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike in September. He highlights upcoming US jobs data and ISM manufacturing as key inputs, and sees the US Dollar Index (DXY) finding support near 99.35/40 and potentially breaking back above 100 this week.DXY holds as markets eye Fed"In theory, the dollar should be broadly weaker today after the US and Japanese authorities confirmed joint FX intervention and the Japanese probably sold $70-80bn over the last three days. Lower oil prices should also be weighing on the dollar on reports from US President Donald Trump that negotiation, rather than military firepower, is Washington's preferred method of engaging with Iran.""The fact that the dollar is not broadly weaker probably owes to the unresolved issue of whether the Federal Reserve will hike in September. ""For today, the focus should be on a reasonably strong July ISM manufacturing release.""It seems the only way the Fed can avoid hiking in September is if the US data is poor enough. A major input to that decision comes this week in the form of US jobs data, including JOLTS job openings, ADP, and Friday's non-farm payrolls report. On NFP, consensus is around +75-80k and probably not quite weak enough to rule out a Fed hike. In other words, the case for a sustained sell-off in the dollar has yet to be made.""The DXY dollar index will be bounced around by the USD/JPY intervention story, but with decreasing marginal impact from this news story, we suspect DXY could find support near 99.35/40 and can break back above 100 this week."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

10:16 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Faces rejection near 100-day SMA at 0.7050; bullish bias intact
The AUD/USD pair faces rejection near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and retreats slightly after hitting a fresh high since June 17, around the 0.7050 level earlier this Monday.

10:11 Equities: Sector rotations shape summer performance – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team notes that equity indices have been broadly unchanged over the summer, but sector rotations have been significant. Higher Oil prices supported energy stocks, while within technology, software has outperformed and semiconductors have lagged.

Danske Research Team notes that equity indices have been broadly unchanged over the summer, but sector rotations have been significant. Higher Oil prices supported energy stocks, while within technology, software has outperformed and semiconductors have lagged. Regional equity performance has mirrored these dynamics, with Emerging Markets weaker and Norway, Europe and Sweden showing relative strength.Rotations drive sector and regional moves"Equity indices have been broadly unchanged over the summer, but beneath the surface the rotations have been substantial. Higher oil prices naturally supported energy stocks, but equally important has been another significant rotation within the technology sector.""Unlike earlier this year, software has materially outperformed while semiconductors have lagged. This has not reflected disappointing earnings. Instead, investor attention has again centred around the uncertainty surrounding the longer-term AI capital expenditure cycle.""Regional equity performance has mirrored these sector dynamics. Emerging Markets have underperformed while Norway has benefited from higher energy prices.""Interestingly, both Europe and Sweden have delivered relative outperformance throughout the geopolitical escalation, a notable contrast to previous episodes earlier this year.""This morning sentiment is improving once again as lower oil prices support risk appetite. South Korea is the notable exception with equities down around 6%, while both US and European futures indicate another opening close to fresh all-time highs."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

10:07 Swiss Franc declines against US Dollar amid hawkish Fed bets
The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades lower against its major currency peers at the start of the week. The USD/CHF pair rises 0.15% to near 0.8082 as a market-sentiment revival following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Swiss Franc weakens against the US Dollar amid firm Fed interest rate hike expectations.The US and Iran announce ceasefire 2.0 as Tehran agrees to Hormuz reopening and nuclear terms.Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues regarding the Fed's monetary policy outlook.The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades lower against its major currency peers at the start of the week. The USD/CHF pair rises 0.15% to near 0.8082 as a market-sentiment revival following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets. Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% 0.13% -0.47% 0.09% -0.13% -0.08% 0.17% EUR 0.01% 0.13% -0.51% 0.10% -0.14% -0.03% 0.15% GBP -0.13% -0.13% -0.59% -0.06% -0.26% -0.16% 0.04% JPY 0.47% 0.51% 0.59% 0.51% 0.27% 0.40% 0.55% CAD -0.09% -0.10% 0.06% -0.51% -0.23% -0.11% 0.03% AUD 0.13% 0.14% 0.26% -0.27% 0.23% 0.10% 0.29% NZD 0.08% 0.03% 0.16% -0.40% 0.11% -0.10% 0.21% CHF -0.17% -0.15% -0.04% -0.55% -0.03% -0.29% -0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote). Over the weekend, United States (US) President Donald Trump shelved planned attacks on Iran, clarifying that Tehran agreed to the nuclear deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.At press time, S&P 500 futures are 0.6% higher to near 7,535, reflecting a risk-on mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 99.70.Though the US Dollar Index is also down, it is trading higher against the Swiss Franc amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates in the near term.According to TD Securities, the strength of underlying US activity is increasingly calling into question how tight current Fed policy actually is, with the bank noting that “robust activity is also another sign that policy may not be that restrictive.” At the same time, TD Securities cautions that inflation dynamics remain critical: “If core services inflation continues to prove sticky, that would likely be enough to motivate the Fed to tighten policy,” its analysts warn, highlighting the risk that persistent price pressures in the services sector could still force additional action from the central bank.Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 64.6% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in the September policy meeting.This week, investors will focus on a string of US economic data, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

09:57 Forex Today: Mood improves as US and Iran renew push for diplomatic solution
Here is what you need to know on Monday, August 3:

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In the second half of the day, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for July will be featured in the US economic calendar. US Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.13% -0.93% -4.20% -0.35% -0.39% -1.23% -0.84% EUR 1.13% 0.19% -3.11% 0.78% 0.76% -0.10% 0.29% GBP 0.93% -0.19% -3.40% 0.60% 0.57% -0.28% 0.10% JPY 4.20% 3.11% 3.40% 4.00% 3.96% 3.09% 3.40% CAD 0.35% -0.78% -0.60% -4.00% -0.07% -0.88% -0.50% AUD 0.39% -0.76% -0.57% -3.96% 0.07% -0.84% -0.46% NZD 1.23% 0.10% 0.28% -3.09% 0.88% 0.84% 0.38% CHF 0.84% -0.29% -0.10% -3.40% 0.50% 0.46% -0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). US President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he held off a planned "massive attack" and said a day later that negotiations with Iran will resume on Monday. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged the US to “remain committed” to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June. Crude Oil prices opened with a huge bearish gap on this development and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was last seen trading at around $78, losing more than 8% on the day. Reflecting the upbeat market mood, the US Dollar (USD) Index stays below 100.00 after losing more than 1.5% in the previous week and US stock index futures are up between 0.5% and 0.8% on the day.Brent retreats as US-Iran talks resume after aborted strikeAnalysts at Danske Bank highlight a sharp pullback in Brent following signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran confrontation. They note that in the context of the US-Iran war, “Trump confirmed on Sunday that negotiations with Iran would resume on Monday after calling off what he described as the ‘biggest attack since World War II’ at the request of Gulf allies.” The US President “declined to set a deadline or disclose the location and participants,” but the prospect of renewed talks has eased immediate geopolitical risk.According to Danske Bank, “oil prices fell sharply on signs of de-escalation, with Brent crude trading just below USD84/bbl this morning after closing around USD90/bbl on Friday.”Meanwhile, recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials failed to support the USD.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered a distinctly more hawkish message on Friday, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.7/10, notably above the 6.7/10 historical average and signaling a stronger tightening bias relative to the established baseline. The emphasis that “risks to inflation are to the upside,” that monetary policy is “not restraining” the economy, and that inflation is “not on course” to 2%—combined with a stated preference for a quarter-point rate increase—underscored concern that without additional policy restraint, inflation will remain above target and may ultimately require sharper action. Following the previous week's sharp decline, USD/JPY came under heavy bearish pressure in the Asian session on Monday and touched its lowest level since early May below 155.50. The pair staged a rebound afterward and erased a large portion of its losses. At the time of press, USD/JPY was trading near 156.80, losing about 0.4% on the day. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that she has no comment on whether there was foreign exchange (FX) intervention today, Reuters reported. Earlier in the day, Katayama stated that Japanese authorities conducted coordinated Yen-buying intervention with the US on Friday, adding that officials will not hesitate to carry out more FX intervention with Washington. EUR/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum after rising in the Asian session and trades virtually unchanged at around 1.1520 in the European morning on Monday.GBP/USD corrects lower following a three-day rally and trades slightly above 1.3450.Gold finds it difficult to set a near-term direction and extends its sideways grind above $4,000 on Monday. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

09:51 Japanese Yen: Joint intervention signals potential turning point – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened sharply, with USD/JPY dropping from around 164 after suspected intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and confirmed joint action with the US Treasury.

MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened sharply, with USD/JPY dropping from around 164 after suspected intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and confirmed joint action with the US Treasury. He notes that past joint JPY interventions often coincide with turning points in USD/JPY, but stresses that fundamentals must shift for a durable move lower.Historic joint action in Yen markets"The Japanese Yen strengthened further below the 158 level heading into the weekend, with the media including the FT and Bloomberg reporting that the US Treasury intervened to strengthen the Japanese Yen on Friday by selling Euros to buy Yen.""In Asia morning time, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama released a statement confirming that both Japan and the US Treasury intervened on Friday, and that they will not hesitate to conduct further joint intervention if necessary in close coordination with the US.""Historical episodes of joint JPY intervention show that these events have typically taken place around key turning points in USD/JPY, but this is not always the case and tends to take some time before the broader trend changes.""For instance, in June 1998, USD/JPY fell sharply from 146 to 136 within a few days, helped by joint FX intervention, but it took at least two more months after that and shifts in the underlying dynamics of the Asian Financial Crisis before USD/JPY’s longer-term trend broke.""Overall, while we think that the joint intervention is certainly historic and significant, and could certainly play an important role in the short-term in clearing out Yen shorts, the fundamentals likely still need to change for a more durable move lower in USD/JPY."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

09:48 Canadian Dollar weakens on falling oil prices amid US-Iran talk hopes
The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to near 1.4030 during the early European session on Monday. A fall in crude oil prices weighs on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD). The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be released later on Monday.

09:36 Oil: Prices slide on halted strikes – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s FX Research team reports that Brent Oil opened over 7% lower under USD84 into the Asian session after President Trump said the US would hold off on new strikes against Iran.

Commerzbank’s FX Research team reports that Brent Oil opened over 7% lower under USD84 into the Asian session after President Trump said the US would hold off on new strikes against Iran. Despite OPEC+ approving a modest output increase for September, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping Persian Gulf export disruptions and inflation concerns in focus.Trump decision hits Brent sharply"The dominant story heading into the Asian open is that Brent oil prices have opened lower by over 7% to under USD84. This followed reports over the weekend that President Donald Trump said the US would hold off on new strikes against Iran. Iran and other Gulf nations indicated they are working toward a deal.""President Trump posted on social media that he had agreed to cancel the attack “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL”, adding “Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE”. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had reportedly urged Trump to refrain from further military action.""The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, continuing to disrupt Persian Gulf oil exports and stoking inflation concerns across Asia and Africa.""On the energy front, OPEC+ approved a further increase of 188k barrels a day to collective output targets for September on Sunday, completing the theoretical unwinding of the 1.65mn barrels a day in voluntary cuts made in April 2023."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

09:10 GBP/USD Price Forecast: At make or a break around 1.3500
The British Pound (GBP) underperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD trades lower to near 1.3470 as the British Pound faces selling pressure.The BoE left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.Market sentiment turns risk-on as oil prices fall significantly.The British Pound (GBP) underperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD declines as traders reconsider Bank of England (BoE) interest rate expectations, following the monetary policy announcement on Thursday. Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.09% 0.04% -0.66% 0.07% -0.15% -0.11% 0.11% EUR 0.09% 0.12% -0.60% 0.16% -0.07% 0.02% 0.16% GBP -0.04% -0.12% -0.67% 0.01% -0.20% -0.09% 0.06% JPY 0.66% 0.60% 0.67% 0.66% 0.42% 0.53% 0.65% CAD -0.07% -0.16% -0.01% -0.66% -0.23% -0.13% -0.01% AUD 0.15% 0.07% 0.20% -0.42% 0.23% 0.09% 0.29% NZD 0.11% -0.02% 0.09% -0.53% 0.13% -0.09% 0.17% CHF -0.11% -0.16% -0.06% -0.65% 0.01% -0.29% -0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote). Analysts at Deutsche Bank stressed that the BoE was not “edging towards a rate hike,” a message that prompted a swift reassessment in market pricing. They note that investors “dialed back expectations for BoE hikes,” with the implied probability of a September move dropping from 60% to 30%. In parallel, Deutsche Bank highlights that “31bps of hikes [were] priced by year-end (-11.4bps on the day),” underscoring how the latest policy signals have tempered the market’s conviction in further tightening this year.Last week, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with a 6-3 majority, and stated that interest rate hikes would be needed if Middle East risks persist and second-round effects of inflation start emerging.However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey signaled in the press conference that the current state of inflation is not as bad as it thought. "Encouraging that CPI is below where we thought it would be,” Bailey said.Meanwhile, the market sentiment is favorable for riskier assets, as oil prices have declined significantly due to a renewed ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran. As of writing, S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% to near 7,535, reflecting a risk-on mood.GBP/USD technical analysisGBP/USD trades lower at around 1.3475, but reflects a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.3389. The pair is at a critical level of 1.3470 where it could extend the advance or face a bearish reversal.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 keeps a positive bias without yet signaling overbought conditions on the daily chart.On the downside, the 20-day EMA around 1.3389 should let sellers press the pair lower. Looking up, the psychological level of 1.3500 is the key hurdle for British Pound bulls; a decisive break above that would improve the odds of further upside towards the July high at 1.3558.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Thu Jul 30, 2026 11:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 3.75% Consensus: 3.75% Previous: 3.75% Source: Bank of England

09:10 Euro: Rebound eyes key resistance band against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes EUR/USD rebounded sharply after a dip to 1.1453, with scope to extend gains toward 1.1565 intraday, provided it holds above 1.1495.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes EUR/USD rebounded sharply after a dip to 1.1453, with scope to extend gains toward 1.1565 intraday, provided it holds above 1.1495. On a 1–3 week view, he sees potential for a test of 1.1565 and possibly 1.1600, while a break below 1.1455 would undermine the bullish scenario.Upside bias toward 1.1565–1.1600"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, USD fell to a low of 1.1453 and then rebounded sharply to close unchanged at 1.1527. EUR could continue to rebound today but note that 1.1565 is expected to provide significant resistance. To keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1495, with minor support at 1.1510.""1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After dropping to a low of 1.1353 early last week, EUR soared and ended the week 1.41% higher at 1.1527. The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600. On the downside, a breach of 1.1455 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR is unlikely to break above 1.1565."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

09:02 Germany’s Retail Sales falls by 1.1% MoM in June vs. -0.5% expected
German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, showed a downside in June. The consumer spending measure fell 1.1% month-on-month (MoM), according to official data released by Destatis, while it was expected to have declined 0.5%. In May, Retail Sales rose by 1.2% (revised from 1.1%)

08:48 Indonesian Rupiah holds gains as manufacturing PMI expands in July
USD/IDR remains subdued for the fourth successive day, trading around 18,040 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair experiences notable downside pressure as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) strengthens in response to encouraging domestic economic indicators.

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The pair experiences notable downside pressure as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) strengthens in response to encouraging domestic economic indicators.Indonesia’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion territory in July, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rebounding to 50.2 from June’s 46.9, its highest level since February. This growth was driven by a marginal uptick in factory output following four months of contraction, alongside a stabilization in new orders after June's sharp decline.Indonesia’s inflation cooled significantly in July. Headline annual inflation eased to 2.88% from 3.34% in the previous month, undershooting market expectations of 3.2% and reaching its lowest level since April. This slowdown keeps inflation comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s target band of 1.5% to 3.5%. Core inflation held steady at 2.76%, while monthly consumer prices fell 0.14%, defying forecasts of a 0.1% increase and marking the first monthly deflationary reading since January.Compounding the USD/IDR pair's decline was widespread weakness in the US Dollar (USD), which faltered against major global currencies following news of official foreign exchange operations. Japanese authorities confirmed they executed joint, coordinated yen-buying interventions alongside the United States, with Bank of Japan data indicating expenditures of up to $58.97 billion. Tokyo emphasized that active communication with US policymakers remains ongoing and signaled a readiness to intervene further if necessary.Finally, the Greenback faced broader selling pressure as global risk sentiment improved on potential diplomatic developments in the Middle East. Market anxiety eased after reports indicated US President Donald Trump paused planned military strikes against Iran. In a social media post on Truth Social, President Trump noted that regional nations requested time to finalize a deal, which aims to address Iran's nuclear program and facilitate the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Barkin flags a close call on rates, keeping Dollar bulls cautiousBarkin’s latest remarks score 6.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the 5.4/10 historical average and signaling a slightly firmer tone relative to the established baseline. Calling it a “close call” on whether rates are high enough, expressing uncertainty about joining recent hike dissents, and highlighting uneven price increases alongside skepticism on a stronger labor market together point to a nuanced stance that tempers outright hawkish conviction and leaves the Dollar sensitive to incoming data. The mix of caution on labor strength and acknowledgement of uneven inflation suggests policy patience rather than an imminent push for higher rates.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.46 points to 148.24, indicating a mild pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This keeps the broader Fed tone in hawkish territory, but Barkin’s “close call” framing and reluctance to clearly endorse further hikes contribute to the slight softening captured by the FXS Fed Sentiment Index relative to the stronger readings implied by the FXS Speechtracker.FXS Fed Sentiment Index: Daily Chart Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

08:34 Japanese Yen jumps as US-Japan confirm joint intervention, hint further action
The USD/JPY pair tumbles to near 156.45 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) climbs amid speculation that Japanese authorities may have intervened to prop up the currency again after coordinated action between the US and Japan last week.

08:28 Indian Rupee starts the week with a bang on US-Iran peace 2.0
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR extends its losing streak for the third trading day, is down 0.25% to near 95.15, the lowest level seen in over three weeks.

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The USD/INR extends its losing streak for the third trading day, is down 0.25% to near 95.15, the lowest level seen in over three weeks.The Indian currency is strengthening as the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran after renewed hostilities in the Middle East in July has pushed oil prices sharply lower.In the opening trade, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades over 6% lower to near Rs. 7,600.Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.US halts planned attacks on IranOver the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced that planned attacks on Iran have been suspended as the nation has agreed to the nuclear deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of the global energy supply.“We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to. This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.The renewed US-Iran peace hopes appear to have given a lifeline to Indian stock markets. At press time, the Nifty50 Index is up 0.7% at around 24,555.RBI policy comes into the spotlightOn the domestic front, the major event for the Indian currency this week will be the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.Economists at ING expect the Reserve Bank of India to leave the policy stance unchanged at its upcoming meeting, stating that “we expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday.” They acknowledge that “headline inflation surprised to the upside in June, largely due to higher fuel prices,” but stress that “underlying price pressures remain contained.” In their view, “core inflation continues to run below the RBI's target, providing policymakers with sufficient room to keep policy rates unchanged while monitoring evolving risks to the inflation outlook.”US Dollar is under pressure despite hawkish Fed betsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues last week’s underperformance, trading 0.1% lower at around 99.70 in the Asian session. The Greenback faces pressure even as traders are confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver an interest rate hike at the September policy meeting.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates next month are 67.7%.This week, investors will focus on a slew of US economic data, especially the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. Later in the day, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for July. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive at 54.0, up from 53.3 in June.Technical Analysis: USD/INR moves far from 20-day EMA on the downsideUSD/INR trades lower at 95.15, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.75. The EMA overhead suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive oversold condition.On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA clustered near 95.75, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the July 7 low at 94.78 is the key support level, followed by the June 26 low at 94.15.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

08:17 Asian stocks trade mixed as AI-led selloff and Yen rally counter Iran optimism
Asian shares were mixed at the start of a new week as losses in South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei 225 counter improving risk sentiment due to easing Middle East tensions.

08:11 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Breaks below 179.50 as bearish bias prevails
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 179.40 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is extending a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

07:49 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains traction above 1.1500, while remaining constrained below 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1535 during the early European trading hours on Monday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment.

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The bearish tone of the major pair prevails under the 100-day SMA. The initial support level is seen at 1.1530; the immediate resistance level to watch is 1.1570. The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1535 during the early European trading hours on Monday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after reports that US President Donald Trump had called off an attack on Iran and talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. Traders brace for the German Retail Sales data for June, which is due later on Monday. If the reports come in weaker than expected, this could drag the shared currency lower. On the US docket, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be published. Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1533. The pair remains capped in the near term as spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1569, keeping the broader tone heavy despite the latest bounce. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.5 shows firm positive momentum, but with price still under the key trend average, this strength merely hints at a corrective rebound within a broader bearish backdrop.On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1529, with the 20-day SMA middle band at 1.1430 and the lower band near 1.1331 marking deeper cushions if selling resumes. On the topside, a daily close above the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 would be needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward higher levels.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)Euro briefly lifted by French CPI as ECB commentary stays mutedAnalysts at Scotiabank note that the Euro received “a modest lift” earlier in the session after French CPI data “came in well above expectations,” but stress that the support quickly faded as “the impact was short-lived as broader themes took hold.” They add that “comments from the ECB have been limited and the speaking calendar is empty over the next week or so,” leaving the currency largely to trade on prevailing macro drivers rather than fresh policy signals. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

07:40 Gold holds above $4,050 as easing inflation fears curb Fed hike bets; USD bounce caps gains
Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest weekly bullish gap opening and remains below the $4,100 mark through the Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) stages a modest recovery from its lowest level since June 17 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity.

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The US Dollar (USD) stages a modest recovery from its lowest level since June 17 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity. The upside for the USD, however, seems limited amid renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations, which, in turn, helps the non-yielding bullion to preserve gains above the $4,050 level.US President Donald Trump called off planned attacks on Iran over the weekend, claiming that Mideast allies have reached the parameters of a deal on Tehran's nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump further told reporters that the US and Iran are set to resume negotiations Monday afternoon, fueling optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old war. Adding to this, the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase production in September triggered a steep decline in crude oil prices. This eases inflation fears and tempers bets for a more aggressive Fed policy tightening, which should keep a lid on any meaningful USD appreciation and support the Gold price.Traders, however, seem hesitant to place fresh bearish bets around the USD and opt to wait for further developments around the Middle East crisis. Hence, the focus remains glued to incoming geopolitical headlines, which might continue to infuse volatility in financial markets and drive the USD demand. Apart from this, traders will take cues from important US macro data, scheduled at the start of a new month, for some meaningful impetus. A busy week kicks off with the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI later this Monday. The market attention, meanwhile, stays on the crucial US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.XAU/USD daily chartTechnical Analysis: Gold remains confined in a familiar range as bulls seem hesitant below $4,100From a technical perspective, nothing seems to have changed much as the XAU/USD pair remains confined in a familiar range below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Against the backdrop of the recent downfall, this might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside.Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, close, 9) stays in positive territory with a reading near 11.6, hinting at tentative upside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.1 remains neutral and suggests only limited directional conviction. Hence, any further move up might struggle to find acceptance above $4,100.The said handle is followed by the top boundary of the trading range, just ahead of the $4,200 mark, which, if cleared decisively, could lift Gold to the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33. Bulls would need to reclaim a technically significant barrier to alleviate the prevailing bearish tone and reopen the path toward higher highs.On the downside, immediate support is inferred from recent swing lows around the $3,976–$4,000 area, where buyers previously emerged. A convincing break below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to further declines.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:59 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $58.00 on renewed US-Iran peace talks
Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $58.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:21 WTI Price Forecast: More pain likely if fails to hold $77
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, holds onto early losses, trading 7.6% lower at around $78.60 during the Asian trading session on Monday.

06:05 United States Dollar Index weakens below 100.00 as Trump says new Iran talks would begin Monday
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.70 in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY declines amid improved risk sentiment.

05:43 Canadian Dollar drifts lower as falling oil prices counter weak USD amid Iran hopes
The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains confined within Friday's broader range. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4030 region, up less than 0.10% for the day amid mixed fundamental cues.

05:21 Australian Dollar remains stronger following China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data
AUD/USD depreciates after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 0.7030 during the Asian hours on Monday.

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The currency pair maintains its gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remained resilient, supported by economic developments in China, Australia's major trading partner.China’s RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.9 in July from 51.7 in June, missing market expectations of 51.5; it continued to signal expansion in manufacturing activity.Aussie inflation surprise seen as fuel-driven but still above RBA targetBNY’s Geoff Yu notes that RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter characterised Australia’s latest CPI print as “a touch softer” than anticipated, with the downside surprise in headline inflation “mainly driven by lower fuel prices.” Hunter’s comments underscore that the moderation in price pressures is narrowly focused, rather than signalling a broader disinflation trend, and come against the backdrop of inflation still running above the RBA’s 2–3% target band.The US Dollar (USD) struggles against major peers following official confirmation from Japan regarding joint currency interventions. Japanese authorities confirmed they carried out coordinated yen-buying operations with the United States, with Bank of Japan data pointing to spending of up to $58.97 billion on Thursday. Tokyo further signaled its readiness to intervene again if necessary, noting that close communication with US counterparts remains ongoing.Pressure on the Greenback was further compounded by a broader easing of market risk aversion, spurred by potential diplomatic developments between the US and Iran. Sentiments shifted after reports indicated US President Donald Trump paused planned military strikes. In a post on Truth Social, President Trump stated that Iran and neighboring Middle Eastern nations had requested time to finalize a deal, a proposal that would lead to the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and address Iran's nuclear program.However, financial markets remain cautious as Iranian officials swiftly contested these claims. Reporting via Iran's Mehr news agency, officials characterized the assertion that Tehran sought a pause as "nothing but a new lie." They emphasized that Iranian military forces remain on high alert and fully prepared for any eventuality, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

05:07 New Zealand holds gains near 0.5900 despite weaker China PMI data
The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.5890 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains firm despite the downbeat Chinese economic data.

05:00 Australian Dollar languishes near April low as joint US-Japan intervention lifts Yen
The AUD/JPY cross turns lower for the fifth straight day after a modest uptick to the 111.20 region on Monday and drops to its lowest level since early April during the Asian session.

04:53 British Pound struggles despite easing risk aversion
GBP/USD holds losses after three days of gains, trading around 1.3470 during the Asian hours on Monday.

GBP/USD drops despite a weaker US Dollar as Trump's paused strikes boosted US-Iran diplomatic hopes.President Trump stated Middle Eastern nations requested extra time to finalize a deal with Iran.The BoE signaled possible rate hikes if US-Iran conflict uncertainties drive up inflation.GBP/USD holds losses after three days of gains, trading around 1.3470 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair may regain its footing as the US Dollar (USD) struggles under easing risk aversion, driven by hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran following reports that US President Donald Trump held off on planned strikes.In a post on Truth Social, US President Trump stated that Iran and other Middle Eastern nations requested additional time to finalize an agreement, a proposed deal that would lead to the "immediate, complete, and total" reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz while effectively eliminating Iran's nuclear threat.However, high market uncertainty persists as Iranian officials swiftly dismissed the claims. According to Iran's Mehr news agency, Iranian officials characterized Trump's assertion that Tehran sought a pause as "nothing but a new lie," emphasizing that the Iranian armed forces remain on high alert and fully prepared for any eventuality.The Bank of England (BoE) opted to leave interest rates unchanged last week, though it kept the door open for potential rate hikes due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. Despite the pause, money markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate increase by the end of the year, according to Prime Terminal data.BoE tone softens as Bailey downplays urgency on next hikeAnalysts at Scotiabank characterize the latest BoE decision as signaling "softened hawkishness," noting that Governor Andrew Bailey "played down the urgency around timing of the next rate hike" even as the MPC delivered a 6–3 vote to hold rates, with three policymakers calling for a "25bpt increase." This combination of a split vote and more cautious guidance reinforces the impression of a central bank that remains alert to inflation risks but is in no rush to tighten policy aggressively.

04:46 China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI declines to 50.9 in July
China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.9 in July from 51.7 in June the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Monday. The market forecast was for a 51.5 reading.

04:45 China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.9, below expectations (51.5) in July

04:42 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: 2% (July) vs -0.2%

04:42 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) climbed from previous 3.9% to 4% in July

04:22 US President Donald Trump says Iran talks to begin Monday after canceling attack
US President Donald Trump said that fresh round of Iran talks would begin Monday after he cancelled a planned attack on Iran partially in response to pleas from US allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

04:19 Euro holds near mid-1.1500s, highest level since June 17 as receding Fed hike bets hit USD
The EUR/USD pair builds on last week's breakout momentum above the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal barrier and attracts buyers for the fifth straight day on Monday.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7898 vs. 6.7894 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7898 compared to Friday's fix of 6.7894.

04:03 Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) increased to 1% in July from previous -0.4%

04:02 Gold recovers above $4,050 as Trump pauses Iran strikes
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $4,060 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher amid hopes of a breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran after reports that US President Donald Trump has held off Iran strikes.

03:55 Breaking: Japanese Yen rises above 155.50 as Japan announces joint intervention with the US.
The USD/JPY pair tumbles to near 155.45, the lowest since May 6, during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some buyers following reports of more joint intervention by the United States (US) and Japan.

03:45 Japan’s Mimura: Joint intervention could mark peak of US-Japan currency partnership
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said that joint intervention could mark the peak of US-Japan currency partnership, Reuters reported on Monday.

03:44 WTI holds losses near $79.00 amid Middle East peace talks, OPEC+ output expansion
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price gains ground after opening with a bearish gap, remaining nearly 7% down to trade around $79.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday.

03:35 Japan's Katayama: Conducted coordinated yen-purchasing intervention with US
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that Japanese authorities conducted coordinated Yen-buying intervention with the United States (US) on Friday, adding that officials will not hesitate to carry out more foreign exchange (FX) intervention with Washington, Bloomberg reported.

03:30 South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 53.1 in July from previous 52.1

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI registered at 54.5, below expectations (54.7) in July

03:16 Japanese Yen softens, traders watch further US-Japan joint currency intervention
The USD/JPY pair recovers some lost ground to near 157.65, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday.

03:02 Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 52 above expectations (51.7) in July

02:43 OPEC+ agrees to boost September production by 188,000 barrels per day
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day (bpd) from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Mideast war.

02:32 Australian Dollar gathers strength to near 0.7050 as Trump cancels Iran strikes
The AUD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.7040 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on improved risk sentiment after the reports that US President Donald Trump holds off Iran strikes.

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on improved risk sentiment after the reports that US President Donald Trump holds off Iran strikes. Traders await the release of China’s RatingDog Manufacturing g Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, which is due later in the day.Bloomberg reported that Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran on the basis of “rapidly” reaching a deal on its nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump paused the strikes in expectation of a breakthrough and in response to requests from Iran and other countries in the region, he claimed on his Truth Social platform on Saturday.Traders will closely monitor US-Iran developments. Any positive progress between two countries could provide some support to the riskier assets, such as the Aussie.However, uncertainty remains high as Iranian officials said that Trump’s claim that Tehran had requested a pause “was nothing but a new lie” and that the Iranian armed forces were “on high alert and ready for any eventuality,” per Iran’s Mehr news agency. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, lifting the Greenback and acting as a headwind for the pair.The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish tone has prompted markets to continue to fully price in one more rate ‌hike this year, which would take the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.6%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock last week warned that underlying inflation remained too high and a further slowdown in domestic demand may be required to tame prices.Bullock further stated that policymakers were prepared to raise interest rates again if needed. "The Board is prepared to act as required to achieve its mandate, including by increasing the cash rate further if needed,” said Bullock.RBA keeps pressure on prices as labour market stays resilientAnalysts at BNY highlight that RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reiterated the need to maintain a restrictive stance, noting that inflation “remains above the 2-3% target band” and stressing that the RBA must “keep pressure on price growth so higher inflation expectations do not become entrenched.” On the labour side, BNY reports that Hunter characterised conditions as “still somewhat tight,” with job growth having held up “not too badly” over the first half of the year, underscoring the resilience of employment despite softer headline price data. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

01:45 New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -4% to -3.6% in June

01:37 Middle East War updates: Trump holds off Iran strikes on pledge Hormuz deal is close
Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

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14:31 Australian Dollar comes under pressure as US Dollar regains ground AUD/USD falls to around 0.7000 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.30% on the day, as a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) outweighs the support provided by Chinese economic data for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

14:26 Federal Reserve: Data driven rate path – HSBC HSBC strategists note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) left policy rates unchanged in July, with markets now assigning a two-thirds probability to a September hike.

13:00 New Zealand Dollar eases as markets focus on US-Iran talks NZD/USD trades around 0.5870 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.11% on the day.

13:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to show strong factory activity in July Investors are attentive to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, as it releases July’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

12:54 Euro area: Services PMI and inflation risks – BNY Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the lack of further Fed tightening has eased global financial conditions and partially offset European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, but European inflation dynamics remain distinct from the U.S.

12:52 British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data The British Pound (GBP) is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day.

12:37 Gold: Explosive phase, muted correction – Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Research analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu argue that Gold has been in an explosive price phase since August 2024, but recent moves suggest a muted correction.

12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.38 per troy ounce, up 1.37% from the $57.59 it cost on Friday.

12:20 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles to extend opening gains amid hawkish Fed bets Silver price (XAG/USD) opens strongly due to a sharp decline in oil prices, but struggles to extend gains beyond $58.68 during the day. At press time, the Silver price is up 1% to near $58.20.

12:16 Oil: prices slide on halted strikes – Commerzbank Commerzbank strategists report that Brent Oil opened over 7% lower under USD84 into the Asian session after President Trump said the United States (US) would hold off on new strikes against Iran.

11:57 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Defends 200-day SMA below mid-109.00s after range breakdown The AUD/JPY cross attracts heavy follow-through selling and touches its lowest level since late March, around the 109.40-109.35 region at the start of a new week.

11:40 Swiss Franc: inflation undershoots SNB outlook – Nomura Nomura strategists note that Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 0.4% year-on-year in July, helped by weaker car fuel prices and easing imported energy costs.

11:33 Euro remains near seven-week highs after downwardly revised Eurozone Manufacturing PMI The Euro (EUR) posts moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, trading at 1.1525 at the time of writing, but standing close to the seven-week highs, at 1.1556 hit earlier on the day.

11:30 Euro: Fed uncertainty limits gains against US Dollar – ING Chris Turner at ING argues EUR/USD should be performing better given solid Eurozone data, lower Oil prices and Japanese US Dollar (USD) selling, but notes possible US activity in EUR/JPY as a short-term drag.

11:16 Dow Jones futures advance as oil prices fall on US-Iran diplomatic signals Dow Jones futures gain 0.54% to trade around 52,920 during European trading hours on Monday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures rise 0.49% to trade near 7,550, while Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.64%, trading near 28,590.

11:02 Japanese Yen outperforms its peers amid speculation of fresh US-Japan intervention The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades sharply higher against its major currency peers during the European trading session on Monday.

10:52 United States Dollar Index drops to near $77.50 due to Japanese FX interventions The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after three days of gains and trading around 101.50 during the Asian session on Tuesday.

10:46 British Pound: Rally may stall near 1.3555 against US Dollar – UOB United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights GBP/USD’s volatile session, with a spike from 1.3401 to 1.3481 and scope for further gains toward 1.3520, though overbought conditions may cap upside.

10:35 Oil: Red sea disruptions reshape global flows – Societe Generale Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe how Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab security risks are forcing Oil cargoes onto longer, more complex routes.

10:22 US Dollar Index: Fed hike expectations support DXY – ING ING’s Chris Turner notes that despite sizeable joint FX intervention in USD/JPY and lower Oil prices, the US Dollar (USD) is not broadly weaker as markets still price a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike in September.

10:16 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Faces rejection near 100-day SMA at 0.7050; bullish bias intact The AUD/USD pair faces rejection near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and retreats slightly after hitting a fresh high since June 17, around the 0.7050 level earlier this Monday.

09:57 Forex Today: Mood improves as US and Iran renew push for diplomatic solution Here is what you need to know on Monday, August 3:

09:36 Oil: Prices slide on halted strikes – Commerzbank Commerzbank’s FX Research team reports that Brent Oil opened over 7% lower under USD84 into the Asian session after President Trump said the US would hold off on new strikes against Iran.

09:10 GBP/USD Price Forecast: At make or a break around 1.3500 The British Pound (GBP) underperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday.

09:10 Euro: Rebound eyes key resistance band against US Dollar – UOB United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes EUR/USD rebounded sharply after a dip to 1.1453, with scope to extend gains toward 1.1565 intraday, provided it holds above 1.1495.

08:28 Indian Rupee starts the week with a bang on US-Iran peace 2.0 The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR extends its losing streak for the third trading day, is down 0.25% to near 95.15, the lowest level seen in over three weeks.

08:17 Asian stocks trade mixed as AI-led selloff and Yen rally counter Iran optimism Asian shares were mixed at the start of a new week as losses in South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei 225 counter improving risk sentiment due to easing Middle East tensions.

07:49 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gains traction above 1.1500, while remaining constrained below 100-day SMA The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1535 during the early European trading hours on Monday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:59 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $58.00 on renewed US-Iran peace talks Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $58.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:21 WTI Price Forecast: More pain likely if fails to hold $77 West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, holds onto early losses, trading 7.6% lower at around $78.60 during the Asian trading session on Monday.

05:21 Australian Dollar remains stronger following China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data AUD/USD depreciates after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 0.7030 during the Asian hours on Monday.

05:07 New Zealand holds gains near 0.5900 despite weaker China PMI data The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.5890 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains firm despite the downbeat Chinese economic data.

05:00 Australian Dollar languishes near April low as joint US-Japan intervention lifts Yen The AUD/JPY cross turns lower for the fifth straight day after a modest uptick to the 111.20 region on Monday and drops to its lowest level since early April during the Asian session.

04:53 British Pound struggles despite easing risk aversion GBP/USD holds losses after three days of gains, trading around 1.3470 during the Asian hours on Monday.

04:46 China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI declines to 50.9 in July China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.9 in July from 51.7 in June the latest data published by RatingDog showed on Monday. The market forecast was for a 51.5 reading.

04:19 Euro holds near mid-1.1500s, highest level since June 17 as receding Fed hike bets hit USD The EUR/USD pair builds on last week's breakout momentum above the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal barrier and attracts buyers for the fifth straight day on Monday.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7898 vs. 6.7894 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7898 compared to Friday's fix of 6.7894.

03:44 WTI holds losses near $79.00 amid Middle East peace talks, OPEC+ output expansion West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price gains ground after opening with a bearish gap, remaining nearly 7% down to trade around $79.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday.

03:16 Japanese Yen softens, traders watch further US-Japan joint currency intervention The USD/JPY pair recovers some lost ground to near 157.65, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday.

02:43 OPEC+ agrees to boost September production by 188,000 barrels per day The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day (bpd) from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Mideast war.

01:37 Middle East War updates: Trump holds off Iran strikes on pledge Hormuz deal is close Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

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